Reaching Resistance: How a Drop in Oil Prices Is Reflecting on the Bitcoin Chart

Amid easing geopolitical tensions, global markets are experiencing significant changes. Oil prices have declined amid the easing of international conflicts, and the crypto market has demonstrated unexpected resilience. Bitcoin has begun a recovery period, leaving behind multi-month resistance levels, opening new prospects for investors.

Bitcoin Rises on Risk Wave Amid Oil Market Changes

Bitcoin has shown positive momentum in recent days, although its current price is $78,990 with a 24-hour decline of 6.13%. For context, on the eve of the report, the cryptocurrency traded around $83,460, and a few days ago, it surpassed the psychologically important level of $97,000.

This fluctuation occurs against the backdrop of significant geopolitical events. The US President announced a de-escalation of tensions with Iran, leading to a drop in WTI crude futures by more than 4.4% to $59. Analysts at QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin lagged behind the stock market and gold for a long time but has finally broken through multi-month resistance. In their view, potential US dollar weakening amid global macroeconomic trends could facilitate a rotation of capital into digital assets.

The broader crypto market also showed growth: the CoinDesk 20 index rose by 1% over the same period. Moreover, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $843 million in net inflows, and Ether ETFs added $175 million, signaling a renewed institutional appetite for risk.

Chart Analysis: Technical Picture and Key Levels

The weekly chart of Bitcoin displays a clear continuation pattern of the bullish trend. Bullish divergence on higher timeframes indicates the possibility of maintaining the macro uptrend.

A key focus for traders remains the weekly close above the 50-week exponential moving average (shown as an orange line on the chart). Such a close would confirm a return to a stable bull market. If this level holds, a clear corridor opens up toward a significant resistance zone at $100,000, which is the next major Fibonacci barrier.

The current level at $78,990 represents a short-term correction after previous gains. Analyzing the chart, it is evident that each significant dip within the trend created opportunities for recovery. Such a scenario could repeat if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.

Macroeconomic Factors and Geopolitical Impact

The link between oil prices and cryptocurrencies is often viewed through risk appetite. A decline in oil prices typically signals a reduction in geopolitical tensions and expectations of slowing growth, prompting investors to seek alternative assets.

In this case, the easing of the Iran crisis led to a decrease in WTI crude futures, simultaneously creating room for growth in risky assets, including Bitcoin. This relationship can be observed in real-time market charts: when geopolitical fears subside, capital returns to the crypto market.

Alongside geopolitical events, regulatory discussions are unfolding. The US Senate Banking Committee delayed the crypto market structure bill, which was anticipated by players like Coinbase, who withdrew their support. Although these news caused a short-term correction, they did not derail the broader market rally.

ETF Flows and Market Sentiment

One of the most prominent signals of renewed interest in cryptocurrencies is activity in spot ETFs. Daily net flows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $843.6 million, while Ether ETFs attracted $175.1 million. Cumulatively, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $58.1 billion in net inflows since launch.

Despite weaker momentum compared to Bitcoin, Ether rose by 1.92% over 24 hours and is trading at $2,460 (down 9.19% from the previous day). Privacy-oriented tokens showed even greater volatility: Zcash increased by 5.1% to $308.46, and Dash by 2.4% to $45.78, though both experienced 24-hour declines of 8-9%.

Market sentiment has undergone a dramatic shift. For the first time in three months, the market has returned to a state of “greed” according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, reflecting investors’ readiness to accept higher risk.

What to Expect

Looking ahead, several scenarios should be considered. First, a Supreme Court decision on tariffs or further geopolitical escalation could trigger risk-averse sentiment. Second, expanding hedging through ETFs will continue to shape the trend in the crypto market.

The relatively stable statistic shows that Bitcoin’s hash rate (seven-day moving average) remains around 999 EH/s, demonstrating network resilience. CME futures open interest stands at 123,715 BTC, indicating significant positioning at higher levels.

Oil prices remain a critical indicator of global risk appetite. If the downward trend in oil prices continues amid easing geopolitical risks, it will have positive implications for Bitcoin’s chart. However, investors should remain vigilant for unexpected news and macroeconomic surprises that could alter this dynamic.

The current period is a key moment for making positions. Analyzing trends on cryptocurrency charts and their correlation with oil prices helps traders develop strategies for the coming quarters.