**Japan's Race Against Time: Why Deep-Sea Mining for Rare Earth Elements Matters Now**

The global competition for critical mineral access is intensifying, and Japan is taking bold action. Starting this month, the country will conduct its first deep-sea mining trial targeting rare earth elements in waters near Minamitori Island, located approximately 1,900 kilometers off Tokyo's coast. This initiative underscores Tokyo's growing concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities—particularly its heavy reliance on Chinese-controlled mineral exports.

**Why the Urgency?**

Japan's predicament is straightforward: China consolidates control over the rare earth supply chain. Beijing currently produces roughly 70 percent of the world's rare earths and dominates refining operations with over 90 percent of global capacity. For Japan, the dependency is even starker—around 60 percent of rare-earth imports originate from China, while certain heavy rare earths come almost exclusively from Beijing.

This concentration poses real economic risks. Japan's government estimates that a three-month supply interruption could inflict more than US$4 billion in damage to domestic industries. An extended year-long disruption might reduce annual GDP by nearly 0.5 percent. The 2010 territorial dispute, when China quietly halted shipments to Japan, serves as a cautionary reminder of what's at stake.

**The Deep-Sea Mining Trial: What to Expect**

Japan's experiment, running from January 11 through February 14, will test equipment designed to extract up to 350 metric tons of sediment daily from the seabed. The trial serves dual purposes: validating extraction technology while simultaneously assessing environmental impacts on marine ecosystems and monitoring procedures aboard the mining vessel.

If this initial phase succeeds, officials signal that larger-scale operations could commence next year, paving the way for Japan's planned processing facility on Minamitorishima. That facility, expected operational by 2027, aims to handle recovered rare-earth mud and form the backbone of a domestically controlled supply network. A full-scale demonstration in February 2027 will test the facility's capacity to process up to 350 metric tons of rare-earth sediment daily.

**Strategic Cooperation and Broader Implications**

Japan isn't pursuing this independently. The country is actively exploring deeper collaboration with the United States in Minamitori Island's waters, building on commitments both nations made last year to jointly develop mining, processing, and supply chain infrastructure for critical minerals. This partnership reflects a broader strategic realignment—diversifying away from China-dependent supply chains.

China's recent announcements restricting exports of dual-use items with military applications have only reinforced Japan's determination. Analysts warn that Beijing could interpret such restrictions broadly enough to encompass certain rare earth materials, effectively weaponizing mineral exports. This move echoes 2010's playbook and justifies Tokyo's pivot toward deep-sea mining independence.

**The Environmental Question**

Marine scientists and environmental advocates continue raising alarms about potential ecosystem damage from deep-sea mining operations. The deep ocean remains poorly understood, and extracting significant sediment volumes could cause lasting harm to seabed habitats. Despite these warnings, competing nations are accelerating their own exploratory deep-sea mining projects, driven by intensifying pressure to secure critical mineral access.

Japan's gamble reflects a broader geopolitical calculus: securing supply chain autonomy may outweigh environmental concerns in the near term, though long-term consequences remain uncertain.