Bitcoin surpasses $89,000: Market structure is changing despite selling pressure and outflows

Short-term rally and quick correction — signs of overheating

Bitcoin started the session with clear momentum, reaching a high of $90,500 before dropping to $87,600 within just a few minutes. The one-hour chart analysis shows that the move began at resistance at $87,865, where the price broke previous daily highs. However, the breakout was halted within a narrow resistance band between $90,298 and $90,552 — an area that has repeatedly suppressed upward potential in recent weeks.

The selling pressure was swift. As BTC hit this key level, selling pressure increased dramatically, bringing the price back down to $87,600 within minutes. The average daily price of BTC was around $90.20K, but intra-session changes were significant — from a high of $93.38K to a low of $89.86K, with a 24-hour decline of -3.36%.

The RSI indicator reached a value of 89 during the rally, signaling extreme market overheating. After rejection at the RSI resistance, it quickly fell into the high thirties, confirming strong selling activity. Increased volume during the decline (compared to the initial rise) suggested that more activity was coming from bears.

Despite the dramatic daily low, the price remained above support at $87,066–$86,611, indicating that the intraday structure did not completely break down. This pattern suggests a market that overheated too quickly, rather than a typical trend reversal.

ETF outflows and changing trader behavior on the spot market

Market flow data added another layer to the picture. Outflows from ETFs approaching $1 billion indicate weaker institutional demand. Meanwhile, balances on exchanges continue to decline — December showed systematic net outflows, with only two days (on December 3 and 19) characterized by net inflows of about $40 million and $26 million, respectively.

This pattern suggests that BTC holders are more interested in transferring assets off trading platforms than providing liquidity. This is characteristic of long-term positioning, where traders move assets into self-custody wallets rather than actively trading on exchanges.

Derivatives market — short liquidations and rising open interest

The derivatives market activity was significant. During the price increase, approximately $42.45 million in short positions were liquidated — nearly twice the amount of long liquidations ($26.99 million). The pressure forced short-sellers to close positions, helping accelerate the initial rally above $89,000.

The weighted funding rate increased to +0.00885%, suggesting that long position holders want to maintain their positions. Even more notable is the approximately 2% increase in open interest over the last 24 hours, now around $58.09 billion. This growth indicates that more traders are opening new positions rather than closing existing ones — a situation often associated with higher volatility and the risk of sudden price movements.

Long-term holders remain calm — lowest sales volume of the year

The most surprising data come from on-chain analysis of long-term investor behavior. Only 2,700 BTC were sold two days ago — the lowest daily volume in all of 2025. This figure stands in stark contrast to activity in July, when daily sales ranged from 8,000 to 18,000 BTC.

During previous local peaks (in March, September), long-term holders showed significant profit-taking — around 13,000 BTC and 11,000 BTC respectively. This time, despite reaching new highs, the typical profit-taking wave did not occur.

Such low selling volume among hodlers indicates growing confidence among long-term investors to hold BTC. The lack of selling pressure from this group is a sign that demand fundamentals remain stable, regardless of short-term price fluctuations.

Summary: structure is changing, but fundamentals remain intact

Bitcoin broke above $89,000, marking a structural change on the chart, even though it did not sustain earlier gains. Outflows from ETFs and the updated $90.20K price reflect mixed investor sentiment, but on-chain data reveal a different story — long-term holders have mobilized around current levels and are not mass profit-taking.

The combination of rising open interest, low selling volumes among hodlers, and stable exchange balances suggests the market is preparing for further oscillations. Technical measures indicate potential volatility — RSI has reached extreme levels, and volume on bearish moves was dominant. In the short term, pressure may persist, but broader demand fundamentals remain solid.