【Over $1 billion flows out of crypto asset ETFs, but Bitcoin approaches $90,000? The hidden force supporting the market】

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show strong resilience. On December 30, it rose to $89,340 on Coinbase US, and while repeatedly buying the dip in the mid-$86,000s, expectations are rising for a breakthrough above $90,000 before 2026.

Meanwhile, a massive outflow of approximately $1.886 billion from US cryptocurrency ETFs occurred in December alone. Over the past 8 days (December 18–30), about $1.1299 billion has been withdrawn, indicating a wave of portfolio adjustments driven by year-end tax strategies.

The True Buyers Resisting ETF Outflows

Typically, such large-scale fund outflows from ETFs would significantly depress prices. However, the reality is different. The reason lies in internal market fund rotation.

Data shows that investors are rapidly shifting funds from altcoins to Bitcoin during risk-avoidance phases. Bitcoin dominance has increased from 58.50% on November 26 to 59.66% at the time of writing. Bitcoin’s market capitalization share within the entire crypto market is steadily rising, and during the liquidity downturn typical at year-end, funds are increasingly concentrated into more robust assets.

Throughout late December, repeated buying has been observed around the mid-$86,000s. This is not mere coincidence but evidence that institutional investors and individual traders are consistently supporting the lower levels.

Sustainability Driven by Spot Market Gains

Analysis of the derivatives market further highlights the nature of this price rebound. According to Coinglass data, as of December 30, trading volume decreased by 30.59% to $66.34 billion, and open interest fell by 1.85% to $56.6 billion. Options trading volume also dropped by 35.46% to $2.24 billion.

This indicates a process of deleveraging from speculative excess leverage, which in turn signifies market normalization. The long/short ratio has returned to nearly neutral at 0.99, suggesting that the previously dominant bearish positions have been unwound.

A key point is that while trading volume has sharply declined, open interest reductions are limited. This suggests that new excessive leverage has not accumulated, and spot demand is driving the price higher. Leverage-driven rallies tend to reverse quickly with changes in funding conditions, whereas gradual, spot-led increases are more sustainable. This tendency is especially pronounced in an environment where Bitcoin dominance is rising.

A Turning Point Before 2026

If the price maintains around the mid-$88,000s and clearly breaks through $90,000, a significant shift in investor sentiment ahead of 2026 is likely. The pressure to reevaluate positions will increase, and funds that have been on the sidelines may start flowing into the market.

However, capital outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs remain a major risk factor. If additional large-scale outflows occur following the maximum single-day outflow on December 26, attempts to break above $90,000 could be hindered. Until the wave of year-end tax position adjustments fully subsides, market uncertainty is expected to persist.