Key Trends in the Crypto Market by 2026: Galaxy Research Releases 26 Major Predictions

Galaxy Research recently released 26 forward-looking predictions for the 2026 crypto market, covering multiple dimensions such as Bitcoin price trends, DeFi ecosystem development, stablecoin expansion, institutional adoption, and more. These predictions provide a systematic reference framework for investors to understand future market directions.

Bitcoin: From Boom to Stability

Price Outlook

Although Bitcoin failed to meet the optimistic expectations at the beginning of 2025, Galaxy believes the long-term bullish outlook remains solid. It is expected that by the end of 2027, Bitcoin will reach a target price of $250,000. Current market option pricing shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of 2026 is roughly the same; similarly, the chances of hitting $50,000 or $250,000 are also approximately equal—reflecting high short-term market uncertainty.

In 2025, Bitcoin hit a historical high of $126,080 but then retreated to around $90,000 due to macroeconomic disappointment, shifts in investment narratives, and leverage liquidations. Currently, Bitcoin needs to stabilize within the $100,000–$105,000 range; otherwise, downside risks remain.

Signals of Market Maturity

It is noteworthy that the Bitcoin volatility curve has undergone structural changes. Implied volatility’s put option premiums have started to exceed call option premiums, which was uncommon six months ago. This shift marks Bitcoin’s evolution from a nascent market characteristic toward a traditional macro asset, indicating increasing institutional adoption and asset class maturity.

Blockchain Infrastructure Layer: Differentiated Development

Solana’s Economic Maturity

The on-chain economy of Solana is undergoing an upgrade from token culture to sustainable business models. The total market size of internet capital is expected to surge from the current $750 million to $2 billion. As investors prefer supporting revenue-generating businesses over short-term token cycles, this shift will become the core economic engine of the Solana ecosystem. According to the latest data, Solana (SOL) is currently priced at $142.84.

Built-in Revenue Models for Layer 1 Applications

At least one mainstream L1 blockchain will directly integrate revenue-generating applications, giving native tokens economic value. Hyperliquid’s built-in revenue model through perpetual contract exchanges has validated this feasibility. More L1s are expected to follow suit by integrating revenue infrastructure at the protocol layer to strengthen token economics.

Enterprise-Grade Blockchains Moving Toward Practicality

By 2026, at least one Fortune 500 company, cloud service provider, or e-commerce platform will launch a branded enterprise L1 blockchain handling over $1 billion in real economic activity. These are not early experimental projects but settlement infrastructures designed for specific vertical industries.

Stablecoins and Asset Tokenization: Traditional Finance Integration

Stablecoin Trading Volume Surpassing Traditional Systems

By 2026, stablecoin trading volume is expected to surpass the ACH system of the US Automated Clearing House. The supply of stablecoins has grown at an annual rate of 30%-40%, with trading volume increasing even more significantly. With the approval of the GENIUS Act-related definitions early in 2026, stablecoin growth is likely to exceed historical averages. Real-time data shows USDC(USD Coin) market cap has reached $74.64B, and PYUSD(PayPal USD) market cap is $3.68B.

Increased Competition Among Traditional Financial Institutions’ Stablecoins

Several leading global banks are jointly developing stablecoins based on G7 currencies; PayPal and Paxos have launched PYUSD; these collaborations indicate that the market will not support multiple widely used stablecoin options. Future market consolidation will favor successful stablecoins with extensive distribution networks—capable of connecting banks, payment processors, and enterprise platforms.

Card Networks Accessing Public Blockchains

At least one of the three major card payment networks will process over 10% of cross-border transactions via public chain stablecoins by 2026. Most end-users will not notice the crypto interface, but net settlements between regional entities will be tokenized USD, reducing settlement times, pre-financing needs, and associated banking risks.

Mainstream Banks Accepting Tokenized Assets

At least one top-tier bank or broker will begin accepting tokenized stocks as on-chain collateral, treating them as fully equivalent to traditional securities.

DeFi Ecosystem: Trading and Governance Innovation

Decentralized Exchange Market Share Growth

By the end of 2026, DEXs will account for over 25% of spot trading volume. Currently, DEX spot trading accounts for about 15%-17%, and their advantages of KYC-free trading and better economic structures are attracting more users and market makers.

Expansion of Market Governance Scale

DAO treasury assets managed through futarchy (future markets) will exceed $500 million, a significant increase from the current $47 million. This mechanism has been validated in practical applications.

Market for Privacy Tokens Surges

The total market cap of privacy tokens is expected to surpass $100 million. ZCash(ZEC) surged about 800% in Q4, and Railgun increased by 204%. Real-time data shows ZEC(the zero coin) is currently priced at $415.50, with a market cap of $6.85B. As on-chain activity scales up, user privacy concerns will rise.

Prediction Market Explosion

Polymarket’s weekly trading volume is expected to stabilize above $1.5 billion, compared to the current near $1 billion. New capital efficiency layers and AI-driven order flow will drive growth.

Traditional Finance Integration: ETFs and Institutional Participation

Spot Crypto ETF Wave

The US will list over 50 spot altcoin ETFs and more than 50 other crypto ETF products. Over 15 spot ETFs were approved in 2025, with more than 100 applications under review.

Massive Institutional Capital Inflows

Net inflows into US spot crypto ETFs will exceed $50 billion. In 2025, net inflows already reached $23 billion. As restrictions on financial advisors’ recommendations are lifted and traditional platforms like Vanguard join, institutional adoption will accelerate significantly.

Mainstream Asset Managers Include Bitcoin

At least one major asset management firm will incorporate Bitcoin into its standard model portfolios, with a weighting of 1%-2%. The three largest financial institutions have lifted restrictions on Bitcoin and recommend allocations of 1%-4%. The next step involves official research coverage and inclusion in model portfolios.

Crypto Enterprise IPO Boom

In 2026, more than 15 crypto companies will go public or upgrade their listings. In 2025, 10 companies completed IPOs. CoinShares, BitGo, Chainalysis, and FalconX are listed as potential candidates.

Policy and Regulatory Outlook

SEC to Launch Innovation Exemptions

The US SEC will provide some form of exemption allowing unbundled on-chain securities to enter the DeFi market. This could be in the form of a “no-objection letter” or a new “innovation exemption,” enabling legitimate tokenized securities to be traded in DeFi rather than only in backend operations.

Traditional Financial Institutions May File Lawsuits

Some traditional financial or banking entities may challenge the SEC’s exemption policies legally, claiming the absence of comprehensive rules.

Artificial Intelligence Integration: Payment Standards Evolution

x402 Standard Payments Surge

On Base chain, x402 standard payments will account for 30% of daily transaction volume, and 5% of non-voting transactions on Solana. As AI agents increase autonomous trading, standardized payment primitives will become critical. Base and Solana are already leading in this area, with emerging payment chains like Tempo and Arc expected to grow rapidly.

2025 Predictions Recap: Mixed Results

Galaxy’s 23 predictions from last year saw some realized, some falling short. Bitcoin’s price did not break the $150,000 target; US spot BTC ETP assets under management reached $141 billion, not the $250 billion goal but still substantial; Ethereum spot ETF net inflows performed strongly; DeFi revenue distribution indeed surpassed the $1 billion mark.

The rapid emergence of enterprise digital asset management firms (DAT) was seen as an unexpected highlight of 2025, although this wave was relatively short-lived. The overall directional accuracy of the prediction framework remains, but the magnitude and timelines require ongoing adjustments.