2026-01-12 03:22:29

ZEC最近这波调整有点意思。看周线和日线的表现，今天算是真正启动了周图级别的调整，但别被吓到——长线趋势还是向上的，这点和比特币、以太坊的情况不太一样。日线那几条长期均线一直在拖着短期和中期均线往上走，说明多头还是有力量的。

翻看历史，上一轮从120的长期均线反弹，从300块一路冲到了560，这次如果再碰到长期均线，会不会重演上次的强势反弹、冲破500大关呢？

老实说，概率不会特别大。关键原因是上次周图的调整其实没最终确认，这次不一样。所以这轮反弹的天花板大概率就卡在480以下，别对500太抱希望。480块这条线很重要，得重点盯着。

对于交易思路呢，我的想法是这样的：

**Spot side**: Continue to wait. Wait for what? Wait for it to retrace to key weekly levels, the most important signal is to see clear signs of a bottoming out, then switch to hourly to look for entry opportunities. The $300 level is still worth paying attention to.

**Futures side**: Mainly follow short-term rhythm. The 4-hour chart already shows obvious bearish features, with resistance at 420 to 450, and further up it hits the daily resistance at 480. You can look for shorting opportunities on the hourly chart, no need to rush into action.

ZEC2.24%

BTC1.21%

ETH-0.12%

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GateUser-bd883c58

· 13h ago

Line 480 is indeed critical, but I think there's a high chance we'll still give it a try since the bulls haven't completely given up. Wait, can 300U really be reached? It feels a bit unlikely. For this wave of contracts, I plan to follow the short-term rhythm. The hourly chart shows clear bearish features, but we still need to watch for a sign of stabilization. The recent correction of ZEC has been much milder than BTC, and I still feel it's more bullish in the long term. The 480 resistance level is tightly holding, only a breakout would tell a different story. For now, it's better to stay on the sidelines. Just wait for spot trading; there's no rush anyway. The key is to wait for that sign of stabilization. The 4-hour chart shows clear bearish features, but I still want to see the hourly chart before making a decision.

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AirdropHuntress

· 13h ago

Data shows that this wave of adjustment indeed follows a pattern; the 480 line is no joke, it has been reviewed multiple times in historical retrospectives.

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RektButSmiling

· 13h ago

You really need to keep a close eye on this 480 level, or it might get smashed down again.

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NullWhisperer

· 13h ago

ngl, technically speaking this 480 ceiling is the real inflection point here—everything else is just noise masking the actual vulnerability in the narrative. 300U though? *interesting edge case* for sure, but the risk/reward feels theoretically exploitable in the wrong direction rn.

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PerennialLeek

· 13h ago

This line at 480 really needs to be watched closely. It would be great if the 560 wave could be repeated like last time, but unfortunately, the probability isn't very high. It's a bit disappointing.

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