The recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index (A-shares) has indeed been interesting. Since early January, it has formed six consecutive upward gap openings, which is quite rare from a technical perspective. I reviewed historical data, and the first five gaps all followed the same pattern—each time after a continuous rise of over 120 points, a significant pullback would occur.

What about the current situation? The sixth gap is at 3977 points, with Friday’s close at 4120 points. This means the index has risen 143 points since the gap, exceeding the previous average of 120 points. Based on past patterns, a relatively large correction is likely to occur next week.

Here’s a key question: Will the 3977-point gap be filled? If it is not filled in the short term, it indicates a breakout gap, which is less likely to be filled back. From the current momentum, the probability of the gap being filled is not high, and I estimate that the 4000-point psychological level will not be breached in the near future.

There’s also an interesting data comparison. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3815 points to 4120 points, an increase of exactly 305 points. According to historical patterns, each major upward wave typically gains around 300 points, so this rally has already met that standard. Coupled with the continuous rise over the past ten days and trading volume surpassing three trillion yuan, it suggests that a stage high has already appeared.

In simple terms, the index may stop falling near 4030 points next week. A correction is definitely expected in the short term, and those with heavier positions are advised to reduce holdings on rallies. But from a medium-term perspective, the Shanghai Composite Index still has significant room to rise, so there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. Wishing everyone a smooth week ahead!