2026-01-10 23:23:23

Recently, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $89,000 and $93,000, while Ethereum is stuck in the $3,000 to $3,150 range. It may seem insignificant, but this is precisely the calm before a major move. Looking back at previous years' data, similar narrow-range patterns tend to break out with an average gain of 12%, which is quite substantial.

First, let's talk about the time cycle. Since the beginning of 2025, the crypto market has experienced 11 instances of volatility below 20%. What was the result? In 7 of those cases, a direction was chosen between the 6th and 8th trading days. More importantly, the trend continuation rate after a breakout is 73%, with an average duration of 9 trading days. Currently, the consolidation has entered its 5th day, so the next 48 hours are a critical window to watch.

Next, regarding volatility compression, this is more intuitive. The Bollinger Bands' bandwidth has now fallen to its lowest level since 2025—BTC's bandwidth ratio is only 0.8%, similar to a spring being compressed to its limit. What does this mean? A breakout must be accompanied by a surge in trading volume, at least twice the daily average. If volume spikes and breaks above the upper band, shorts should quickly cut losses; if volume breaks below the lower band, it can be an opportunity to add to short positions.

The most interesting aspect is the movement of institutional funds. Recently, the market has shown some contradictions—on one hand, Bitcoin ETFs are investing money, but the rate has dropped from an average of $450 million per day to $120 million, indicating decreasing selling pressure; on the other hand, whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 270,000 BTC this week, and there are 900,000 ETH waiting to be staked, far exceeding the 80,000 ETH that investors want to withdraw. Taken together, these signals suggest that the bulls' intentions are still quite clear.

BTC0.79%

ETH1.34%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GovernancePretender

· 01-10 23:49

The spring has been compressed to the limit, and in 48 hours we'll know where to push. I really can't hold on anymore. Whales are hoarding frantically, ETF outflows are slowing down, and the bulls are really serious. The Bollinger Bands have only 0.8% bandwidth. This is the first time I've seen such data; I need to watch the trading volume. Is the institutional capital so one-sided? It feels like the next wave is coming. After waiting so long for the narrow-range consolidation, the real show begins when the breakout happens. Are you all ready?

View OriginalReply0

PhantomHunter

· 01-10 23:48

The spring has been compressed to the limit, 48 hours to see the true nature, betting on an upward breakout --- It's the same narrow range pattern again, played it like this last year, and in the end, it still got smashed down --- Whales are accumulating, institutions are slowing down and selling off, this signal is indeed a bit interesting --- Day 5? Feels like it just started yesterday, time really flies --- It's just waiting for volume to pick up, breakouts without trading volume are all fake, don’t be fooled --- I haven't seen the data on ETH's staking queue, need to verify its authenticity --- Is the Bollinger Band at 0.8% really pushed to the limit? I look at my chart and it doesn't seem quite the same --- The bulls clearly have intentions but it's not that easy, still need to watch the Fed's news

View OriginalReply0

HodlTheDoor

· 01-10 23:39

The spring is compressed to the limit, waiting for a 48-hour breakout to catch the flying knife. --- It feels like the bulls can't hold back this time, even the whales are quietly accumulating. --- Based on this data, the probability of a breakdown is actually higher. Don't tell me it's a breakout. --- The Bollinger Bands are pressed to 0.8%, and the explosive power is indeed there, it all depends on whether the volume can support it. --- Institutions are slow to put in money; isn't this just waiting for a confirmed direction? --- The staked ETH exceeds the amount they want to withdraw by several times, which indeed looks like a bullish strategy. --- Another key window and a spring, it's getting on my nerves. It's more reliable to listen to the order book. --- With a 73% trend continuation rate in historical data, it sounds good, but I'm just afraid I won't live to see that moment.

View OriginalReply0

ProbablyNothing

· 01-10 23:37

Waiting for so long, it's just these 48 hours now. Betting on a breakout next week. Oh my, the Bollinger Bands are crushed like paper. If the trading volume doesn't pick up, it'll be hilarious. Is the slowdown in institutional selling and the money outflow actually a good sign? Sounds strange, but the whales are really accumulating coins. If the volatility continues, I'll go all in directly. Anyway, as long as it doesn't break, I'll hold. The 900,000 ETH staking data is a bit intense. It feels like they've had their eyes on this for a while.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropBlackHole

· 01-10 23:36

The spring is at its limit, and there will definitely be a big move within 48 hours. It all depends on where the volume pushes it. Whales are疯狂囤货, institutional selling pressure is weakening, this signal is too strong... It feels like the bulls are ready to go. The Bollinger Bands bandwidth is only 0.8%, isn't this a powder keg? The next wave starting at 12% is a sure thing. It feels like this wave will either break the upper band or crash down, with no middle ground... The gambler's mentality is back. The ETF's money outflow has dropped so much, indicating that the selling pressure is really dead. The bears must be panicking, right?

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityWitch

· 01-10 23:34

The spring has been compressed to the limit, it will explode within 48 hours, let's see who will be the first to get trapped. --- Whales are accumulating, the staking queue is full, this is a sign that the bulls are secretly accumulating. --- Every time the Bollinger Bands are this narrow, I have to leverage up. Either a gambler or a genius, who knows. --- The tug-of-war from 89 to 93 has lasted so long. If it breaks the upper band, the bears will be unlucky. Trading volume needs to double to count. --- The speed at which ETFs are releasing funds is slowing down, it seems institutions are starting to watch. Next, it depends on retail investors' sentiment. --- A 73% trend continuation rate is not to be trusted. If this wave can last for 9 trading days, I’ll go all in. --- It's the 5th day. Just two more days to wait before choosing a direction. It's still too early to get in now. --- Whales of Ethereum have eaten 270,000 coins this week. Smart money is accumulating, while we are spamming. The difference is quite big. --- The decay of sell-offs is the key point. Bears are losing strength more and more. --- Bollinger Bands with an 0.8% bandwidth. Such extreme compression is always a prelude to a big move, another good opportunity to cut the leeks.

View OriginalReply0

BearMarketBarber

· 01-10 23:28

Day 5 already, just 48 hours left to see if it's up or down. I bet it's a breakout to the upside. --- Bollinger Bands at 0.8%, this spring is stretched too tight. We need to see if trading volume supports it. --- Whales ate 270,000 ETH this week, and the staking queue still has 900,000. Clearly bullish. --- A 12% move is indeed tempting, but I'm worried it's a false breakout and gets pulled back again. --- ETF dropped from 450 million to 120 million. The decline in selling pressure is interesting; the market is definitely rotating. --- Narrow-range oscillation with a 73% continuation rate? Can we trust this data? Feels like survivor bias. --- I'll watch for two more days. If there's no volume on the breakout, I'll just liquidate directly. Not playing around with you.

View OriginalReply0