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The prediction market boom is indeed burning hot worldwide, but upon closer inspection, the actual performance of the two leading platforms—Polymarket and Kalshi—both valued at over $10 billion—has been quite disappointing.
To put it simply, they are now just wildly chasing growth numbers, but the product itself has basically stagnated. The most obvious problem is platform stability: system failures happen every few days, yet no effective improvement plans have been seen. Trading experiences are sluggish, market data is delayed—these fundamental issues are piling up one after another.
It seems they are thriving in fundraising and valuation, but when it comes to the core product, both are stuck in a dilemma—rushing to grow bigger, but neglecting to solidify their fundamentals. How far can this model go?