Ethereum is trapped between 809 million in short positions and 1.053 billion in long positions, with the price only 2% away from the key liquidation point.

Ethereum’s current price is $3,236, in a delicate position. According to the latest news, if it breaks above $3,300, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach 809 million; conversely, if it falls below $3,150, the long liquidation strength will hit 1.053 billion. This means that whether moving up or down, Ethereum faces significant liquidity pressure.

The True Meaning of Liquidation Pressure

What is liquidation strength

The term “liquidation strength” mentioned in the news needs clarification of an important concept: it is not the exact number of contracts pending liquidation or the value of contracts being liquidated, but rather the relative importance of each liquidation cluster compared to nearby clusters. In other words, higher liquidation bars indicate that when the price reaches that level, market reactions will be more intense due to liquidity waves.

Current Bidirectional Pressure

Based on Coinglass data, the liquidation landscape for Ethereum is as follows:

It is noteworthy that the long liquidation strength below ($1.053 billion) exceeds the short liquidation strength above ($809 million), indicating greater downward liquidation pressure.

Market Force Comparison Analysis

Long and Short Positions Status

According to relevant information, several key signals are present in the current market:

• A whale holds $55.48 million worth of ETH shorts, and combined with shorts in other tokens, the total scale reaches $170 million
• Over $2.2 billion in long leverage is concentrated near the current price
• Institutions continue to accumulate, with large positions held by entities like 7 siblings

This suggests that while longs are continuously accumulating on the spot side, leverage longs in derivatives are also building up, which could trigger chain liquidations if the price drops.

Short-term Risk Assessment

Ethereum is currently about 2% away from the key resistance at $3,300, and only 2.7% from the support at $3,150. In such a narrow range, any breakout in either direction could trigger significant cascade liquidations.

Related information shows that despite a 1.78% increase in 24 hours and an 8.80% rise over 7 days, there are hidden technical risks. An analysis indicates a hidden bearish divergence in the short-term timeframe, suggesting momentum is not fully stabilized and a pullback is possible.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flows

Institutional Attitudes Diverge

From capital flow perspective, ETF inflows remain a positive signal. Last week, Ethereum ETF funds saw inflows of about $161 million, with net inflows continuing to grow. However, this inflow mainly comes from spot market institutions and retail investors, while the accumulation of long positions in derivatives reflects traders’ high risk awareness.

Key Observations

• Ethereum network activity hits all-time highs, indicating strong fundamentals
• Stablecoin transfer volume reaches a quarterly high of $8 trillion
• But extreme skewness in derivatives positions introduces short-term risks

Possible Market Reactions

If Ethereum breaks above $3,300, the strength of short liquidations could trigger a rapid rally, as forced short covering accelerates price increases. Conversely, if it falls below $3,150, larger long liquidation strength suggests a sharper decline.

The most critical factor now is volume. If a breakout or breakdown at these key levels is accompanied by increased volume, the chain reaction of liquidations will be more pronounced.

Summary

Ethereum is currently in a highly sensitive position, with significant liquidation pressures on both sides. The lower side has greater liquidation strength, reflecting market concerns about downside risk. However, from a fundamental and spot capital flow perspective, institutions are still accumulating, providing underlying support for the price.

In the short term, the key is whether the price can hold above $3,236. Once the direction is confirmed, cascade liquidations could amplify volatility. For traders, this presents both risks and opportunities, with the crucial factor being risk awareness and position management.