How do institutions view the Bitcoin market in 2026? This has been a concern for many recently.

According to the latest forecasts from mainstream financial institutions, most are quite optimistic. Standard Chartered recently adjusted its target price, believing that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026. JPMorgan's estimate is more aggressive, suggesting it could challenge $170,000 and even threaten gold's market position. Bernstein also provided a similar outlook, predicting it could hit $150,000 by the end of the year. Tom Lee from Fundstrat has the most aggressive stance, directly calling for a target of $200,000 to $250,000.

What is the common background behind these predictions? The 2024 halving event and the continuous influx of institutional funds. Based on data from comprehensive trading platforms and technical analysis, market expectations for 2026 generally fall into a few ranges: in an optimistic scenario, $120,000 to $170,000; more conservatively, $90,000 to $120,000. In the short term, early 2026 may see fluctuations between $90,000 and $105,000.

However, it’s also important to clarify another perspective. A group of analysts, based on the four-year cycle theory, have a different view. They believe that if Bitcoin hits a peak in 2025, then 2026 might enter a cyclical correction phase. According to historical patterns, the price could retrace to $40,000 to $70,000. Even more pessimistic models predict the bottom could fall to $27,000.

In simple terms, market expectations for 2026 vary quite a bit. The optimistic camp and the cycle correction camp each have their own logic. That’s why it’s essential to closely monitor market trends and policy changes.