#比特币价格预测 Looking at this wave of forecast data, market divergence is indeed obvious. The probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 within the year on Polymarket has dropped to 10%, while Santiment's fear indicator shows that social media sentiment is not yet extreme enough, which means the bottom signal has not been fully confirmed. From on-chain fund flows, there is an interesting divergence in institutional attitudes—Tom Lee remains bullish for a new high in 2026, but Fundstrat's short-term defensive strategy points to a retracement range of $60,000-$65,000, which actually reflects risk management logic across different time frames.

The key is that short-term panic is still insufficient, but the $75,000-$65,000 potential support zone should not be completely ignored. My observation is that at this stage, attention should be paid to whale wallet movements and the pace of fund outflows from major exchanges, as these are more direct signals for judging the true bottom. The divergence in forecasts essentially reflects information asymmetry in the market, rather than who is right or wrong— the focus is on finding your own risk tolerance framework and adjusting positions based on on-chain data.