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Market Mainline Thinking: Finding Certainty Opportunities in a Changing Landscape and Seizing Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty. As the crypto bear market arrives and trading slows down, I take this opportunity to organize my core thoughts on the industry, investment, and myself, focusing on three major market themes.
1. AI Mainline: AI is the core global investment narrative, belonging to the national strategic and capital windfall. Currently, the industry is shifting towards infrastructure bottlenecks, with electricity being the key support. The US's lagging power infrastructure means that by 2026, the power industry chain will become the main battleground for capital. Industry consensus: "The boundary of AI is not in the cloud, but in the real world."
2. US-China Game Mainline: Under de-globalization, the US-China rivalry is becoming clearer and is closely related to crypto and stablecoins. Priority keywords: Gold > Stablecoins > Cryptocurrencies. The core of crypto is its "casino attribute," belonging to the tail end of capital, with high volatility and potential for explosive moves. The strategy is to wait for BTC and ETH to retrace or for the market to warm up to seize opportunities. Major opportunities may emerge by the end of 2026.
3. Scarce Asset Mainline: Leading targets with core value, signals such as China raising gold thresholds and CME increasing silver margin requirements. Targets include gold, silver, copper, and rare earths, which have financial, industrial, and geopolitical attributes. They are expected to grow linearly by 2026, and high-quality assets with reasonable valuations will yield ideal returns.