On the last trading day of the year, the A-shares performed modestly. After three consecutive days of generally declining individual stocks, the final close of 2025 still continued the pattern of fewer gains and more declines. The only bright spot was a rebound in the afternoon, with the number of declining stocks significantly narrowing.

Although the A-shares are closed today, the Asia-Pacific markets collectively strengthened, which is the real signal worth paying attention to. The RMB exchange rate continued its upward trend, approaching the 6.97 level; the Hang Seng Index surged by 2.76%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose even more sharply, jumping 4%; the FTSE A50 futures also increased by nearly 1%. This linkage effect makes it hard not to be optimistic about the market outlook.

The key still depends on the US stock market tonight. US stocks have been adjusting for three days in a row, and from a technical perspective, there is a clear need for a rebound. Plus, today is Friday, and funds usually do not sell off before the weekend, making the probability of a "big rally in a single day followed by a retreat over the weekend" extremely low. In other words, as long as the US stocks don’t have any surprises, or even if they rebound slightly, the A-shares are likely to see a good opening on Monday.

Looking at historical patterns, if the market performs weakly in the first half-hour after opening on the first trading day after a holiday, it often experiences a deep correction throughout the day. But now the situation has changed. Based on the current market sentiment, next Monday’s A-shares may follow two possible paths: one is a strong opening with a direct upward trend, and the other is a brief dip after a high open but with a firm refusal to fill the gap, followed by a new high. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, the core strategy should be to identify relatively high points for phased profit-taking, rather than panic selling.

If either of these two scenarios occurs, the key is to recognize which one it is and adjust the trading plan accordingly. But if an extreme situation like a gap down at open and intra-day gap filling happens, it’s necessary to switch to a defensive mode promptly.

Overall, judging from the current market atmosphere, the probability of an upward rebound remains higher.