The cryptocurrency world in 2026 has completely bid farewell to the era of retail investors being driven independently. Behind the total market capitalization of $3.08 trillion, the real story is the simultaneous exertion of three forces—massive institutional capital inflows, the gradual implementation of regulatory frameworks, and accelerated deployment of new technological iterations. The current market rhythm is clear: short-term sideways consolidation, but a structural upward trend has already taken shape in the medium to long term.

You can feel the tension of this game by observing Bitcoin's repeated struggles at the $88,000 mark. On the other side, whales on Ethereum are quietly accumulating. New tracks like RWA and AI+Crypto have suddenly emerged. These signals point to the same thing—another wave of wealth redistribution is about to begin.

**Bitcoin's current position is very delicate**

In the first week of the year, Bitcoin ETF net outflows reached $144 million, and the price even briefly fell below $87,000. It looks a bit awkward. But on-chain data reveals another story—institutions are actually accumulating against the trend during this "fierce" window. BlackRock's iBIT has already accumulated over 800,000 BTC. Globally, institutional investors have absorbed a total of 1.4 million BTC, corresponding to over $120 billion in real money.

In the short term, over the next three months, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate repeatedly within the range of $87,000 to $95,000, as institutions continue to build positions during liquidity-tight periods. By the first half of 2026, as the Federal Reserve truly begins to cut interest rates and new regulatory laws are passed, Bitcoin could surge to $120,000 to $150,000. By the end of the year, some institutions are optimistic about reaching $150,000. Bitcoin's volatility might even be more stable than that of tech stocks like Nvidia.

The logic behind this is actually not complicated. Bitcoin has already been recognized as a compliant asset, and the "digital gold" positioning is also acknowledged by institutions. The ETF's managed assets have surpassed $120 billion, making it a must-have allocation for traditional funds. The four-year cycle pattern is fading, and the pricing model is gradually shifting toward that of mature assets.

**Ethereum on the eve of valuation re-pricing**

Ethereum is now fighting around the $3,000 level. Large funds are buying on every dip, accumulating over 118,000 ETH. Binance's ETH supply has hit a 15-month low. About 70% of derivatives market positions are long, indicating strong expectations for upcoming technological upgrades.

In the short term, Ethereum should be stable above $3,000, then aim for $3,500. After the major upgrade scheduled for mid-year, the $4,000 level could be within reach.

This is not baseless optimism. It’s driven by ongoing technological iterations, expanding new application scenarios, and increasing institutional recognition of this chain.

**The divergence among altcoins has already begun**

Unlike the steady progress of Bitcoin and Ethereum, other cryptocurrencies are now polarized. Some projects are benefiting from the new cycle's dividends, while others are being cleared out. Choosing the right direction now is more critical than choosing the right price.

Throughout 2026, our goal is to find the rhythm amid short-term volatility and secure positions within the long-term trend. The power of institutions is already evident, and policy directions are becoming clearer. The game rules for retail investors are completely different from two or three years ago.