2026-01-02 12:29:44

The On-Chain Data Record of BTC in the Past Year (Part 2): No Signs of a Bear Market

Yesterday, we reviewed the changes in BTC trading volume over the past 12 months. Today, let's take a closer look at more detailed on-chain indicators. The data is quite interesting—BTC holdings on exchanges are indeed continuously decreasing, which is undeniable. But if you examine it daily, you'll notice another interesting phenomenon: whenever BTC prices fluctuate, the inflows and outflows of funds on exchanges respond accordingly.

These detailed indicators challenge many people's expectations of a bear market. From early 2025 to early 2026, the entire cycle, the on-chain data does not exhibit typical bear market characteristics. The decline in exchange holdings and the increased distribution of coin holders are more similar to accumulation phases. Comparing with historical data, the current on-chain activity and fund allocation patterns indicate a relatively stable market sentiment rather than panic.

BTC1.56%

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Degentleman

· 3h ago

It seems that the bear market expectations were just a false alarm; data doesn't lie.

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TrustlessMaximalist

· 3h ago

Exchanges BTC is flowing out. This is not news; the question is how long can it continue to flow out? --- Accumulation phase? Ha, just watch how the big players move. --- On-chain data looks good, but I'm afraid of a sudden black swan. --- Stay calm? From what I see, many are still cutting losses. --- Data doesn't lie, but human nature is unpredictable. That's the key. --- So you're saying it's not over yet? I'm going to wash up and sleep. --- Increasing coin diversification sounds good, but how long can retail investors hold? --- Every price fluctuation triggers reactions from funds. I've seen this routine too many times. --- Hardcore analysis, but in the end, it still depends on who can withstand the volatility.

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FallingLeaf

· 3h ago

Exchanges cut positions and flee, but on-chain data is actually accumulating? This logic feels a bit counterintuitive. This wave of market behavior is indeed different from the typical bear market of previous years. Only the calm and steady investors are truly strong. A decrease in holdings doesn't necessarily mean selling; it could also be large investors stocking up. Data can be misleading. Maintaining a stable mindset often indicates opportunities in the next wave, but I have always been cautious about this kind of data analysis. Is this the so-called "seemingly a bear market but actually accumulating"? It depends on how it performs in the future.

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DeepRabbitHole

· 3h ago

Hey wait, the exchange BTC is decreasing but it's not panic selling? That logic is a bit clever. Breaking the defense, another group of people about to be proven wrong signals. On-chain data is real, but in the end, it still depends on what the main players think. Accumulation phase? I feel like it's just waiting for the right trend. The握手币 is indeed diversifying, either a sign of a sell-off coming or really stocking up... a probability question. This analysis is not虚虚, but if you can't see the bear market signals, how can you say there are no signals? Decreasing stock? Not necessarily a bear market signal, just not obvious enough yet. When on-chain data looks good, it doesn't move up; when it looks bad, it rebounds... are these indicators really useful? Stable? I think it's just energy storage, it will crash sooner or later. This data has打脸 many shorts, but I still don't believe it. Wait, increased diversification combined with decreasing stock, is something big brewing?

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