2026-01-02 12:21:54

Ethereum surged from 2880 all the way to 3068. This wave of market movement is a pure bullish trend, but the obvious issue now is that it has already moved away from the moving average cluster, with the price running close to the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong short-term bullish sentiment.

From a technical perspective, although MACD remains above the zero line, the histogram bars are clearly shrinking, and the overbought momentum is becoming more pronounced. More importantly, open interest continues to rise while the price starts to stall, which essentially means that the funds chasing the long positions are accumulating, but buying strength is waning, and divergence at high levels is increasing.

The 3060 to 3080 range is both a previous high point and a psychological pressure zone. Without a volume-backed effective breakout, further upward movement would be just a hard push.

Therefore, the strategy here is to attempt short positions in batches between 3050 and 3080, with a stop-loss set above 3100 upon hourly stabilization. The first target is around the strong 3000 level, roughly between 2960 and 2980.

It’s important to emphasize that this does not necessarily mean the market will reverse, but the risk-reward ratio for long positions at this level is no longer very attractive. If you are still holding long positions that are in loss, instead of doubling down and holding through the pain, it’s better to reduce your position and adopt a defensive stance.

In short: the bulls have reached a sentiment stage, and the bears are not waiting for a top to guess but for the moment when the bulls lose momentum. Instead of obsessing over the direction, it’s more crucial to manage your positions well—this is the key to surviving.

Also worth paying attention to are the trends of RIVER and ZEC.

ETH3.87%

ZEC-6.26%

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OvertimeSquid

· 3h ago

Bollinger upper band is tightly pressed against, this wave feels a bit weak. --- MACD histogram shrinks, the funds chasing the long positions are piling up but lack momentum, this is really unreasonable. --- The key level at 3080 was not broken with volume, just a hard pull, it's hard to bear. --- Well said, bullish sentiment has peaked, bears are just waiting for the moment of losing momentum, no need to guess. --- Still holding onto trapped long positions? At this point, you should be thinking about reducing positions, not adding. --- Open interest keeps rising while the price stalls, this signal is really obvious. --- It feels like this round is just built on emotion, once there's a slight movement, it can easily explode. --- The range between 2960 and 2980 looks okay, just see if it can fall back. --- Hard pulling up is meaningless, we still need an effective breakout or a reversal. --- Position management is really key, it's much more practical than guessing the top blindly.

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MindsetExpander

· 3h ago

The Bollinger upper band is so tight, and the MACD bars have shrunk. This wave is indeed a bit weak... The funds chasing the rally are piling up, but buying pressure is waning. To put it simply, no one is willing to take the bait anymore. No wonder there's such a big divergence at high levels. Decisively reducing positions and defending is the right move.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 3h ago

The upper Bollinger Band is so tight, the MACD bars are almost paper-thin, and you're still forcing it? That's ridiculous. The bullish sentiment is so obvious. Try shorting around 3050-3080, with a stop loss at 3100—that's enough. Brothers stuck in long positions, wake up. Reducing positions is the key; don't hold on stubbornly. Position management is a hundred times more valuable than guessing the direction, really.

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hodl_therapist

· 3h ago

Position 3068 is indeed a bit risky; everyone chasing in should be cautious.

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DaisyUnicorn

· 3h ago

This is the garden of bullish accumulation. It's time to pick the flowers... Absolutely right, position management is the key to survival.

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Ser_Liquidated

· 3h ago

It's another emotional peak. I knew it—I’m all too familiar with this feeling of forcing it. Every time, it goes up like this and comes down just as quickly.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 3h ago

This wave of rally is indeed a bit aggressive, the MACD bars are already starting to shrink, and the divergence at high levels is so large that continuing to push is just ridiculous. A loss of momentum for the bulls is only a matter of time. Instead of stubbornly holding on, it's better to manage positions properly. That’s the right way to survive. Trying to short at 3050-3080 feels more reliable, but set your stop-loss properly or you'll suffer heavy losses. The Bollinger upper band is so tightly attached, if it can't break through, it's just a T+0 trading rhythm. The moving averages are already far behind, and the short-term bullish risk-reward ratio is really not worth it. I’ve already started to reduce my positions in batches. Unrealized profits are increasing but the price isn’t moving, funds are piling up but buying power is weakening. This signal couldn’t be more obvious—it's the opportunity for the bears. The first target is 2960-2980. Don’t be fooled by the current gains; historical data tells us to be cautious when the market is in a high-level dull phase. The current market structure is different from before. The era of blindly chasing longs is over; you need to learn to do T+0 at the top. Should we also pay attention to RIVER and ZEC? First, get a good grasp of ETH’s rhythm. Greed never ends well. I’ve seen this kind of movement too many times. When the emotional peak is near, it’s time to act.

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