Bitcoin today exhibits typical range-bound consolidation characteristics, with prices oscillating repeatedly between $39,000 and $41,000. The short-term direction remains uncertain. However, a closer look at the technical details reveals that behind these seemingly chaotic fluctuations lies a hidden pattern.

From the technical indicators, multiple signals point to a common conclusion—the probability of an upward move still holds the advantage. Key support levels have not been effectively broken, indicating that the bulls still hold the initiative. The issue is that market participants seem to be waiting for a trigger; institutional funds and retail investors are all cautious, even Ethereum and Ripple are caught in this wait-and-see stance, and market sentiment remains tense.

It is important to note that technical signals are not foolproof. The Federal Reserve's policy stance remains a looming threat; any policy shift could instantly dismantle the current bullish pattern. Additionally, V-shaped reversals sound promising, but in practice, they often prove fleeting, and chasing highs carries significant risk.

Is the range-bound consolidation ultimately building strength for a subsequent rebound, or is it a false calm before a major negative event? The market is still waiting for an answer.