The recent turmoil in the financial markets is indeed intense. Precious metal prices have plummeted significantly, leaving many traders dazzled, and the crypto community is also on edge—WeChat groups and discussion forums are filled with questions like "Will Bitcoin fall?" and "Should I buy the dip in Dogecoin?" Honestly, such chain reactions are quite normal, but we need to understand the underlying logic.

Why does a fluctuation in one market affect another? The fundamental reason is straightforward: global capital is fluid. When a risk signal appears in a certain asset class, investors consider whether to shift their funds elsewhere. This expectation transmission happens very quickly in the markets, sometimes even overreacting.

But there's an easily overlooked point I want to emphasize: short-term market volatility and long-term structural trends are two different things. The recent decline in precious metals is essentially a correction in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. Previously, the market widely anticipated the Fed would start a significant rate cut in the first half of 2026, so funds kept flowing into traditional safe-haven assets. In recent months, economic data has exceeded expectations, prompting some institutions to adjust their outlook, believing the Fed might delay rate cuts or even reduce the size of individual cuts. This shift in expectations directly impacted precious metal prices.

The key is that the volatility cycles of the crypto market and the precious metals market are not perfectly synchronized. This drop in precious metals is a correction of expectations and will cause short-term pain. However, the long-term logic of cryptocurrencies—such as Bitcoin's scarcity, blockchain technology development, and increased institutional allocation—has not changed. Short-term emotional swings do not mean a reversal of the long-term trend.

So rather than being led by market sentiment, it's better to clarify your thinking: what is short-term noise, and what are long-term signals? This wave of volatility indeed presents opportunities, but those opportunities are reserved for traders who can distinguish between the two.