#预测市场 After reading this 2026 crypto industry outlook report, what keeps echoing in my mind is an old observation—the industry is undergoing a fundamental shift from "story-driven" to "fundamentals-driven."

Remember that wave in 2021? Prices soared, and everyone was talking about revolution, disruption, and changing the world. Now? After Bitcoin hit $120,000, it started to pull back. There was no dramatic regulatory crackdown, and the liquidity crisis wasn’t as severe as imagined, yet the market has simply cooled down. This is not an accident; it precisely indicates that participants are changing.

Institutional money is flowing in, and those traditional financial players behind ETFs don’t buy into the "casino narrative." They focus on holding costs (currently around $79,000), macro liquidity, and easing cycles. Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a high-volatility institutional asset, positioned between gold and tech stocks. What does this shift in positioning mean? It means that prices are no longer highly correlated with retail investor sentiment but are now deeply linked to economic expectations, policy directions, and capital flows.

Even more interesting are the three main themes—stablecoins, prediction markets, and on-chain US stocks. I’ve always believed that stablecoins are the true killer app of crypto. Now, with global issuance surpassing $300 billion, giants like Stripe and PayPal are using them, and small vendors in Lagos are using USDT instead of banks. This is the moment when network effects truly come into play.

The shift of prediction markets from niche to mainstream is also noteworthy. Kalshi obtained a CFTC futures license, with a valuation soaring to $11 billion. This isn’t because people love gambling more; it’s because on-chain pricing mechanisms are beginning to be used as "collective intelligence tools." Behind this is a clearer regulatory framework—both the US GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act came into effect in 2025, and Hong Kong’s stablecoin licensing system is also advancing.

From self-sustaining cycles to real-world applications, from casino narratives to fundamentals-based competition, this transformation process is quite brutal. Projects that rely on airdrops and referral commissions to attract retail investors will struggle in this cycle. Instead, those capable of solving real problems and maintaining continuous execution will survive until the end. CZ is right—the success of leading projects depends on execution and long-term commitment. Projects in the same track will eventually learn from each other; the key is who can run faster and more steadily.

Will crypto be better in 2026? I really can’t say whether prices will soar again, but the overall trend toward a more authentic and regulated industry is certain. This is actually a good thing, even though many projects and participants will be淘汰 along the way.