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At the start of 2026, the commodities sector has caused quite a stir. Gold approaches $4,400, and silver breaks through $74, marking the most aggressive start since 1979. The driving forces behind this are clear: global central banks continue to stockpile gold, the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates, the US dollar is under pressure, and geopolitical tensions are rising—risk aversion is burning hot.

The bullish voices in the market are nonstop. Some institutions predict gold could surge to $4,900, arguing that the Trump administration might reshape the Federal Reserve's policy framework, fueling expectations of easing. This argument isn't far-fetched at the moment.

The problem is, beneath the joy lurks unseen risks. Some analysts point out that in the next two weeks, the Comex silver market could face a wave of approximately 13% in large position liquidations. Liquidity was already thin after the holiday, and if selling pressure hits, how severe will the price revaluation shock be? Could passive fund rebalancing act as a trigger, sparking a chain reaction?

This is where it gets interesting. On one side, institutions are bullish, data looks good, and sentiment is high; on the other side, warning signs of massive outflows are flashing. When a rally reaches this stage, it becomes very delicate—whether it's a prelude to breaking new highs or the start of a correction? No one can give a definitive answer. The market is waiting, and volatility is building up.