The market is speculating on when interest rate cuts will begin, but a detailed forecast pointing to 2026 is gradually becoming clearer.

According to the latest analysis released by Barclays, the Federal Reserve may initiate its first rate cut in March 2026, followed by a second adjustment in June, each by 25 basis points. This judgment aligns with recent policy signals from the Fed — in December last year, meeting minutes revealed a cautious attitude of "needing more time to observe," and the January meeting is likely to keep rates unchanged.

The core logic of this forecast is quite straightforward: as inflationary pressures gradually ease and economic growth stabilizes, 2026 is very likely to become a turning point for monetary policy adjustments. Put simply, when price increases fall back into a reasonable range, the central bank will have a reason to cut rates.

Currently, all attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Although this may just be the beginning, every statement from the chair and every data release could verify this two-year-early "script" at some future moment. For investors holding digital assets, expectations of rate cuts often boost the appeal of risk assets, making this timetable worth noting.