#预测市场 Seeing CZ talk about prediction markets, I started to reflect. He said, "Teams with obvious short-term advantages may win, but true victory is achieved in long-term competition"—this sentence is a wake-up call for all investors.

Prediction markets are indeed popular, but popularity often comes with risks. I have seen too many people attracted by short-term opportunities, going all-in on a certain track, only to be caught off guard when market sentiment shifts. The issue isn't whether the track itself is good or not, but whether we truly understand what we are betting on.

The penetration rate of the crypto market is still less than 1%, and the growth potential is indeed huge—I agree with this judgment. But a huge space doesn't mean every project can share a piece of the pie. Just like the stablecoin track, although the prospects are broad, risk management always comes first.

The key lies in position sizing. Even the most promising track shouldn't be your entire asset allocation. My advice is: allocate an amount you can afford to risk to participate in emerging opportunities, and allocate the rest to more stable assets. Short-term hot spots will shift, but long-term patience and discipline will not.

This cycle will give us many opportunities, but only if we survive long enough.