2026-01-02 09:30:13

#数字资产动态追踪【Federal Reserve 2026 Rate Cut Roadmap Emerges, Cryptocurrency Market Faces Policy Turning Point】

The FOMC is about to release a new dot plot, and market expectations for the pace of rate cuts this year are increasingly divided.

Current situation: Interest rates remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The 25bp adjustment at the end of last year was more of a test than a genuine easing signal. The December dot plot indicates that the federal funds rate may only be lowered once by 25bp in 2026, ultimately staying around 3.4%.

Key points: Sticky inflation data (~2.4%) and resilient economic growth (GDP growth of 2.3%)—this means the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to cut rates significantly for now.

How does Wall Street view it? Divergence is serious:
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect rate cuts in March and June, bringing rates down to 3.00%-3.25%
• JPMorgan Chase insists on only one 25bp rate cut
• Industry opinions range from no cuts to a total of 150bp

The variable is in May: Powell’s term ends, and a new Fed chair takes office. If economic data weakens significantly, policy direction could shift.

Conclusion: Sticky inflation combined with resilient growth suggests a slow rate cut cycle. The FOMC dot plot decision on January 27-28 will be a key signal—directly influencing the future trajectory of stocks, cryptocurrencies, and financing costs.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

SnapshotStriker

· 5h ago

Talking about interest rate cuts again? I think we'll really have to wait until the Year of the Monkey or the Horse, haha.

View OriginalReply0

WhaleWatcher

· 9h ago

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are bragging again. I bet Powell is too lazy to even listen.

View OriginalReply0

WenMoon42

· 9h ago

A rate cut is still a long way off, this time we really have to wait patiently... --- Wall Street is starting to contradict itself again, this is probably just routine operation --- The change of chairperson in May is a bit interesting, we'll see the real outcome then --- 2.4% inflation is sticking stubbornly, the Federal Reserve has taken a break for now --- Only one 25bp cut? Then my short position might have to suffer for a while --- The economy is too resilient, the rate cut dream might have to wait until next year --- Waiting for the dot plot on January 27th, either take off or continue to fluctuate --- Goldman Sachs' 150bp dream is still just a dream haha --- Inflation data is so sticky, the Fed wouldn't dare to loosen significantly

View OriginalReply0

StableGeniusDegen

· 9h ago

If Wall Street fights like this, retail investors can only wait for the 27th to see the candlestick chart... But on the other hand, inflation has been stuck at 2.4% for so long, how dare the Fed cut quickly? Isn't this just an excuse to put pressure on BTC in the early stages?

View OriginalReply0

BtcDailyResearcher

· 9h ago

It's the same old story, Wall Street sings its own tune, and we crypto folks can only bet on Powell's mood.

View OriginalReply0

ContractTearjerker

· 9h ago

Looking at this data, it seems the Federal Reserve is employing a delaying tactic. When they talk about cutting interest rates, they actually just want to stay on the sidelines.

View OriginalReply0