## Pi Network Investment Trap or Turning Point? In-Depth Analysis of This Controversial Token

Pi Coin has once again sparked heated discussions in the market. From the promise of free mobile mining to the reality of a drop of over 87%, this project, which once gathered 55 million active users, is now facing a crisis of confidence. Is it a fleeting Ponzi scheme or a long-term investment low? We let the data speak.

### Current Situation Worries: The True State of Pi Network

Latest data shows that **Pi's current value is only $0.21**, down **87.94%** from the unofficial peak in December 2022. With a circulating market cap of $17.2 billion and 837 million coins in circulation, it faces a maximum supply cap of 10 billion coins—this number alone can unsettle any investor.

Even more concerning is that the price has not stabilized. From the brief celebration when the mainnet launched (February 20), to falling below $1 in March, and now in the single-digit cents, the entire market is filled with speculation rather than confidence. The average daily trading volume is only $1.67 million, far below truly liquid cryptocurrencies—what does this indicate? **The market is abandoning this project**.

### Unveiling the Truth Behind Pi Network's Operation

Many are attracted by the concept of "free mining," but the reality needs clarification.

**First, Pi is not traditional mining**

Users click a button within the app daily, not solving Bitcoin-style computational puzzles. Pi uses the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP), which operates on a completely different mechanism. Simply put, **you're not solving math problems but proving your existence**.

**Second, it relies on trust networks rather than computational power**

Participants build so-called "security circles"—adding trusted contacts to form a global trust graph. This graph is used to verify transactions, not relying on proof of work. Users' daily activity and social relationships form the basis of network security.

This design sounds innovative, but it also exposes a key issue: **it is highly centralized, relying on the core team’s trust management**. Traditional blockchains aim for decentralization and minimal trust, whereas Pi is the opposite.

### Technicals Are Dead: Why Do Charts Scream "Exit"

Any trader looking at current technical indicators would be cautious.

**Relative Strength Index (RSI)** is at 32.38, approaching oversold territory (<30). This might suggest a rebound opportunity, but without bottom signals, it’s just a "downward rebound," not a real turning point.

**MACD indicator** remains negative. The fast line is at –0.0057, the signal line at –0.0341, and the histogram is all red. No momentum, no buy signals—only continuous selling pressure.

**Trading volume** continues to shrink. The support level at $0.60 has been broken, with the next support possibly at $0.40 or lower. The rally in May? Just a reflexive lift, quickly crushed by profit-taking.

**The conclusion is clear: from a technical perspective, now is not the time to buy**. The trend has not reversed, the bottom is unconfirmed, and risks remain high.

### Price Forecast 2025-2030: The Gap Between Optimism and Reality

Based on the current level of $0.21, we simulate two scenarios:

**Conservative scenario** (market slowly recovers):
- End of 2025: $0.40 (down 27%)
- 2027: $0.90
- 2030: $1.40

**Optimistic scenario** (mainnet runs successfully, major exchanges list it, user base explodes):
- End of 2025: $1.00 (up 378%)
- 2027: $2.50
- 2030: $5.00

**But there is a huge trap here**

These predictions are based on a circulating supply of 837 million Pi. If the maximum supply of 10 billion Pi is gradually unlocked (via KYC migration, mining releases), increasing the supply tenfold, **the price will face unimaginable downward pressure**. Imagine: spreading the same market cap over ten times the tokens, the price is doomed to halve.

### Who Should Invest in Pi, Who Should Stay Away

**The logic of holders**: early miners invested only time, at zero cost. Even if Pi drops to 1 cent, it’s still a profit for them. This is a psychological advantage, not an investment logic.

**The trap for newcomers**: buy at $0.21, expecting to reach $1.00 by 2025? That’s fighting the trend. No support signals from technicals, fundamentals are unclear—mainnet still not fully open, major exchanges not yet listing, use cases still zero.

**Practical choices**:
- If you hold Pi and have profits, consider reducing your position
- If you want to participate, wait until RSI drops below 20 and a bottom candlestick pattern appears
- If you are new to the market, investing now is equivalent to gambling, not investing

### What exactly is Pi Network?

**Positive view**: One of the largest mobile crypto communities globally, with 55 million active users, low barrier to entry, innovative technical direction.

**Critical view**: Lacks transparency, core promises unfulfilled, data policies vague, "314 USD consensus value" is just community fantasy, mainnet launch delayed for years.

**Objective judgment**: It is neither a complete Ponzi scheme (users with zero input) nor revolutionary innovation (too centralized). **It’s more like a social experiment than a mature financial product**.

### Final Words

The story of Pi Coin is not over yet. But the direction of the story is being rewritten.

Early optimism has turned into current stagnation. The mainnet launch was once seen as a turning point, but it became another trap. The expectations of 55 million users have collapsed in the face of market reality.

Investment decisions should be based on data, not emotion. When technical indicators are all red, trading volume shrinks, and fundamentals are hollow, **any buy-in is a gamble on the future**. And the future of crypto markets never favors gamblers.

If you already hold Pi, set a clear stop-loss plan. If you are still watching, wait for clearer signals. Greed often costs the most in a bear market.