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Been involved in the crypto space for so many years, I've seen too many investors fall at the most basic level. They stare at the red and green candles all day, only to be repeatedly harvested by the market. The problem is actually very simple— they overlook the most important thing: trading volume.
Today, I want to openly explain why the relationship between volume and price is much more reliable than simply watching the ups and downs.
**Price hits a new high but trading volume shrinks? This is a dangerous signal**
I experienced this myself last year. A certain coin's daily chart kept rising, but the trading volume was decreasing. At the time, I thought the market was about to take off, but within a few days, a large bearish candle wiped out all the profits. This is a typical "rising price with declining volume" phenomenon— the price is pushed up, but fewer and fewer people are willing to buy in. It usually indicates that the main players are pushing the price higher at the top to offload their holdings, creating an illusion that "it can still go up." When you see this divergence, you should immediately reduce your position or exit completely— don’t hold onto hope.
**Sudden increase in volume but no price movement? Beware of the main players accumulating**
The opposite situation is also very common. The price remains sideways for a long time, then suddenly, trading volume surges, but the price remains unchanged. This often indicates that large funds are quietly accumulating at the bottom. After they have accumulated enough chips, they usually launch a quick rally. Bitcoin previously experienced this during its consolidation at low levels— a sudden volume explosion, and within a week, it broke through key resistance levels. Volume is a leading indicator of price, and remembering this is crucial.
**Sideways movement at high levels is not "rest," it might be the market makers distributing chips**
Many people think that sideways movement means the market is resting, but that’s not true. The key is to distinguish clearly: bottom sideways consolidation and top sideways consolidation are completely different. During top consolidation, the main players are often dividing the spoils, quietly transferring chips to retail investors. This stage is very dangerous; what seems calm on the surface might be brewing a big drop.
In simple terms, understanding the volume-price relationship is like installing a "bug" in the market.