Gold still has potential: Price target analysis from leading financial institutions and supporting factors in 2025-2026

Global Confidence in Gold Rises: Why Trading Technology Makes Investing Easier

Global financial analysts agree on one point: Gold will continue to rise. This is not based on guesses or hopes but on in-depth analysis of fundamental factors. What has sparked interest in this issue is that the XAUUSD gold price recently broke through a key psychological level and continues to have momentum.

Latest Price: Numbers Say Everything

In late 2025, gold set multiple new records. As of October 20, the global gold price hit an all-time high of $4,181 per ounce, compared to $3,000 at the start of the year. This means an increase in value of over 66% in just 7 months.

This rapid appreciation differs from gold’s traditional movement, which took 14 months to rise from $2,000 to $3,000. This difference indicates that buying pressure from the market is gradually intensifying.

For Thailand, 96.5% pure gold jewelry has surpassed the previous target of 55,000 baht, recently exceeding 62,000 baht per baht of gold. Local financial institutions are therefore adjusting their outlook upward in line with this trend.

Signals from Wall Street: Highest Confidence

Goldman Sachs remains bullish. The investment bank has raised its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating about $700 more from the current peak.

Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas points out that the main factors are demand from central banks and inflows into gold ETFs, as they seek to hedge currency risks.

UBS has a similar outlook. The Swiss financial institution still sees prices holding above $3,500. This is driven by the trend of central banks worldwide accumulating data.

Based on these institutional perspectives, the Thai gold price, when converted, is expected to reach 75,000 - 80,000 baht per baht of gold in 2026.

Four Factors Paving the Way for Gold

1. Massive Trade Tensions

The situation between the US and China continues, with import tariffs announced up to 100%, leading to global economic uncertainty. In such circumstances, investors often turn to gold as a “safe haven.”

2. Declining Interest Rate Cycle

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has started lowering interest rates, with a 0.25% cut in September. Markets are again expecting further cuts in the coming months. When interest rates fall, the cost of holding gold (which yields no return) decreases.

3. Central Bank Accumulation Demand

Central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets, have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years. This trend stems from de-dollarization (which is driven by efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar), becoming a motivation after Russia’s asset freeze.

4. BRICS and Financial System Reforms

Rumors about digital currencies backed by gold suggest that these countries are freeing themselves from dependence on the dollar. Humanity’s demand for gold as a store of value continues.

Potential Risks: What Could Cause Gold to Reverse

Although the overall trend is bullish, events could change the direction of gold prices.

• Good news from trade negotiations: If the US and China sign an agreement and tensions ease, gold may lose its “safe haven” momentum.
• Profit-taking after strong gains: An 8-week rally could be followed by a correction.
• Stronger US dollar: If the US economy outperforms expectations, the Fed may delay rate cuts, impacting gold prices.

Tools to Track Movements

Overbought Signals

The RSI index for gold is in an overbought zone, but in an uptrend, this is not a definitive warning.

Multiple Record Breaks

Gold has hit new highs 40 times in a single year, indicating strong buying interest entering the market.

Fibonacci Analysis

Using this technical tool helps identify key support and resistance levels when prices pull back.

Trading Strategies for Now

Wait for Price to Retrace to Support

Allow the price to temporarily stabilize at $3,859 - $3,782, then buy with a stop-loss at $3,750.

Catch the Rebound

When the price tests the $4,000 support again, a bullish candlestick pattern signals a good entry.

Use Fibonacci Levels

Draw from the low of $3,500 to the high of $4,059, then look for 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels for entry points.

Conclusion: Will Gold Fall? The Main Answer Is Unclear, But the Overall Trend Is Up

Whether gold will decline depends heavily on geopolitical and political factors. However, many positive signals, including Goldman Sachs’ ($4,900) forecast and other institutions’ outlooks, remain bullish.

For Thailand, this means an opportunity for 75,000 - 80,000 baht per baht of gold in the near future. The investment caveat is that although the trend points upward, the journey may involve corrections and volatility. A smart strategy is to buy gradually rather than all at once, and patiently wait for prices to retrace support levels before increasing positions.