Vitalik discusses prediction markets: strengthening accountability with economic means, volume surpasses 10 billion USD.

[Coin World] Ethereum co-founder Vitalik recently elaborated on his views regarding prediction markets. He pointed out that prediction markets achieve true accountability by introducing economic costs—participants must invest real money, and if they make incorrect predictions, they lose money. This sharply contrasts with the phenomenon on social media where 'lying comes without consequences.'

What's interesting about this mechanism is that it inherently incentivizes accurate predictions. You have to take responsibility for your judgments, and those who can accurately grasp trends will profit as a result. Vitalik also talked about boundary issues—he opposes market designs that could incite harmful behavior, believing that a moral line is necessary.

Compared to traditional trading markets, the limit price mechanism and community governance of prediction markets are indeed harder for large players to manipulate. In the past two years, this sector has grown rapidly, with trading volume jumping from less than a billion per month to over $13 billion in 2024. This figure itself indicates the market's recognition of such applications.