Bitcoin is stuck in the 81,000-89,000 range, with macro uncertainty breaking the logic of the interest rate cut bull run.

[Coin World] The current predicament of the crypto market, put simply, is caught between macro narratives and political variables.

On one side, the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates three times this year, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75%, and the dot plot suggests there is still room for rate cuts next year. On the other hand, Trump has publicly called for the next chairman to “cut rates right away,” favoring a more dovish candidate, which directly touches on the market's most sensitive nerve—how much independence does the Federal Reserve still have.

The question arises: how will interest rates move in the next two years? It's not just about inflation data and economic growth; we also need to consider political factors and the Supreme Court's rulings on tariffs and the powers of independent agencies. As a result, the old logic of “interest rate cuts equal a bull market” has completely failed.

The differentiation in asset prices is evident: with the combined expectations of interest rate cuts and currency depreciation, gold is particularly favored, and institutions are generally optimistic about gold hitting 4400 USD in the first half of 2026. In contrast, the “Christmas rally” in the U.S. stock market hasn't been so smooth—returns on AI data center investments are being reassessed, high-valuation tech stocks are under pressure, while transportation, finance, and small-cap stocks are seeing a rebound. Overall, it’s a rotation of sectors and a box range fluctuation, with no smooth one-sided rise.

Bitcoin is now also caught in the same “positioning” state. From on-chain data, BTC has recently been stuck in the range of $81,000 to $89,000 - there is constant buying support around the $81,000 level, but as soon as it approaches $90,000, it gets pushed down by selling pressure. The overall structure can be described in one sentence as “fragile but not collapsed.”

ETF funds continue to experience a slight net outflow, spot CVD is retreating, futures open interest is declining, and the funding rate is approaching neutrality. All these signals point to the same fact: it is not a major panic, but rather a lack of new certainty. The options market is also not providing an optimistic signal—there is heavy open interest in put options around 84,000, providing protection below, while the enthusiasm for call options around 100,000 is cooling.