Galaxy: 26 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026

Source: Galaxy Research

Translation: Golden Finance

The closing price of Bitcoin in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.

In the first ten months of this year, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a real bull wave. Regulatory reforms have continued to advance, ETFs have been consistently attracting funds, and on-chain activities have become increasingly active. Bitcoin reached a historic high of $126,080 on October 6.

However, the market did not experience the expected breakthrough after the fervent sentiment; instead, it was characterized by rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. The failure of macro expectations, the shift in investment narratives, the liquidation of leveraged positions, and massive sell-offs by whales collectively disrupted the balance of the market. Prices fell, confidence waned, and by December, Bitcoin had dropped to just over $90,000—during which the movements were far from smooth.

Although 2025 may end with a price decline, the year still attracted real institutional adoption and laid the groundwork for the next phase of actual activation in 2026. In the coming year, we expect stablecoins to surpass traditional payment channels, tokenized assets to enter the mainstream capital and collateral markets, and enterprise-level Layer 1 blockchains to move from pilots to actual settlements. Additionally, we anticipate that public chains will rethink their value capture methods, DeFi and prediction markets will continue to expand, and AI-driven payments will ultimately manifest on-chain.

Without further ado, here are 26 predictions from Galaxy Research for the cryptocurrency market in 2026.

1. Bitcoin price

Prediction 1: BTC has a certain probability of reaching $250,000 by the end of 2026.

The year 2026 is difficult to predict due to severe market fluctuations, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to reach a historical high in 2026.

Current options market pricing shows that as of the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 or $130,000 is roughly equal; by the end of 2026, the probabilities of reaching $50,000 or $250,000 are also similar. This wide range reflects the market's high uncertainty regarding recent trends. At the time of writing, the overall cryptocurrency market is deeply entrenched in a bear market, and Bitcoin has failed to regain upward momentum. We believe that recent risks remain tilted downward until BTC clearly stabilizes in the $100,000-$105,000 range. Other factors in the broader financial markets also introduce uncertainty, such as the pace of AI capital expenditure deployment, the monetary policy environment, and the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Since the beginning of this year, we have observed a structural decline in the long-term volatility levels of Bitcoin—partly due to the introduction of larger-scale options hedging/BTC yield strategies. Notably, the current BTC volatility smile curve shows that the volatility pricing of put options is higher than that of call options, which is the opposite of the situation six months ago. This suggests that the market is shifting from the skew typically seen in developing growth markets towards a pricing model more akin to traditional macro assets.

This trend of maturation is likely to continue. Regardless of whether Bitcoin will fall close to the 200-week moving average, the maturity of this asset class and the rate of institutional adoption are continuously improving. The year 2026 may be a dull year for Bitcoin, but whether it closes at $70,000 or $150,000, our bullish perspective (over a longer time frame) will only become more solidified. The increasingly open channels for institutional access are collaborating with loose monetary policies and the urgent demand for non-dollar hedging assets in the market. Bitcoin is likely to emulate gold in the next two years, becoming a widely adopted hedge against currency devaluation. — Alex Thorn (Head of Research at Galaxy Research)

2. Layer-1 and Layer-2

Prediction 2: The total market value of the internet capital market on Solana will surge to $2 billion (currently about $750 million).

The on-chain economy of Solana is maturing, mainly reflected in the market activity shifting from meme-driven to new models, as well as the success of new launch platforms focused on channeling capital into real profitable businesses. The improvement in Solana's market structure and the demand for tokens with fundamental value further reinforce this shift. As investor preferences shift towards sustainable on-chain businesses rather than transient meme cycles, the internet capital market will become a decisive pillar of Solana’s economic activity. --Lucas Tcheyan (Galaxy Research Analyst)

Prediction 3: At least one already launched, universal Layer-1 blockchain will embed revenue generation within the protocol, directly channeling its value back to the native token.

The increasingly in-depth reassessment of how Layer-1 captures and maintains value will drive public chains towards more preferential designs. Hyperliquid successfully integrates perpetual contract exchanges, and the broad transfer of economic value capture from the protocol layer to the application layer (i.e., the embodiment of the “fat application theory”) is reshaping expectations of what value a neutral base layer should provide. As applications increasingly retain most of the value they create, more public chains are exploring whether certain revenue-generating underlying functions should be directly embedded into the protocol to strengthen the economic model at the token level. Early signs are already emerging. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently called for the development of low-risk, economically meaningful DeFi to support ETH value, highlighting the pressure on Layer-1 to prove its sustainable value capture ability. The MegaEth project plans to launch a native stablecoin and return its revenue to validators, while Ambient's upcoming AI-focused Layer-1 aims to internalize reasoning fees. These examples indicate a growing willingness among public chains to control key applications and monetize them. This lays the groundwork for a major step for a mainstream Layer-1 in 2026: officially embedding a revenue-generating application at the protocol layer and directing its economic value towards the native token. — Lucas Tcheyan (Galaxy Research Analyst)

Prediction 4: There will be no proposal to reduce Solana's inflation rate by 2026, and the current proposal SIMD-0411 will be withdrawn without a vote.

The inflation rate of Solana was a focal point of community controversy last year. Despite the proposal of a new inflation reduction plan (SIMD-0411) in November, there is still a lack of consensus on the best path forward; instead, there is a growing consensus that this would distract from more pressing priorities, such as implementing microstructural adjustments in the Solana market. Furthermore, adjusting SOL's inflation policy may affect its future positioning as a neutral store of value and monetary asset. — Lucas Tcheyan (Research Analyst at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 5: Enterprise-level L1 will upgrade from the pilot phase to a real settlement infrastructure.

At least one Fortune 500 bank, cloud service provider, or e-commerce platform will launch a branded enterprise-level L1 in 2026, settling over $1 billion in real economic activities and operating a production-grade cross-chain bridge connected to public DeFi.

Early enterprise blockchains were mostly internal experiments or marketing efforts. The next wave will be more inclined towards dedicated foundational layers built for specific verticals, with their validation layers open to regulated issuers and banks, while leveraging public chains for liquidity, collateral, and price discovery functions. This will further highlight the differences between neutral public L1s and vertically integrated enterprise-level L1s—the latter will integrate issuance, settlement, and distribution within a single enterprise tech stack. —Christopher Rosa (Research Analyst at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 6: The ratio of application revenue to network revenue will double by 2026.

As trading, DeFi, wallets, and emerging consumer applications continue to dominate on-chain fee generation, value capture is increasingly shifting away from the base layer. At the same time, the network is structurally reducing the value lost through MEV and pushing for fee compression at both L1 and L2 levels, thereby shrinking the revenue base of the infrastructure layer. This will accelerate value capture at the application layer, allowing the “fat application theory” to continue outpacing the “fat protocol theory.” Lucas Tcheyan (Research Analyst at Galaxy Research)

3. Stablecoins and Asset Tokenization

Prediction 7: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will provide some form of exemption relief for the expanded use of tokenized securities in DeFi under its “Innovation Exemption” program.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will provide certain exemptions to promote the development of the on-chain tokenized securities market. This may take the form of a so-called “no-action letter,” or under a new type of “innovation exemption”—a concept that SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has mentioned several times. This move will allow legitimate, unwrapped on-chain securities to develop in the public blockchain's DeFi market, rather than just leveraging blockchain technology for back-end capital market activities (as indicated by the recent no-action letter from U.S. custodial trust and settlement companies). The formal rule-making process is set to begin in the second half of 2026, aimed at drafting rules for brokers, dealers, exchanges, and other traditional market participants to use crypto assets or tokenized securities. — Alex Thorn (Head of Research at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 8: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will face lawsuits from traditional market participants or industry organizations due to its innovative exemption policy.

Whether it's trading firms, market infrastructure providers, or lobbying organizations, some participants in traditional finance or banking will challenge regulators — for granting exemptions to DeFi applications or crypto companies in the process of expanding rules related to tokenized securities, instead of advancing comprehensive rule-making. — Alex Thorn (Head of Research at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 9: The trading volume of stablecoins will surpass that of Automated Clearing Houses (ACH).

Compared to traditional payment methods, the circulation speed of stablecoins remains significantly high. We observe that the supply of stablecoins continues to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30%-40%, with trading volumes rising in tandem. The trading volume of stablecoins has surpassed that of major credit card networks like Visa, currently processing about half of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) transaction volume. With the details of the GENIUS Act set to be clarified in early 2026, we are likely to see accelerated growth of stablecoins, surpassing their historical average compound annual growth rate—existing stablecoin volumes continue to expand, and new participants will also compete for the ever-growing market share. — Thad Pinakiewicz (Vice President and Researcher at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 10: Stablecoins collaborating with traditional financial institutions will see consolidation.

Although many US stablecoins are emerging in 2025, the market struggles to support a large number of widely used options. Consumers and merchants are unlikely to use multiple digital dollars simultaneously; they will ultimately turn to one or two that have the broadest acceptance. We have seen this trend of consolidation from the collaboration models of mainstream institutions: nine major banks—Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Santander, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, MUFG, TD Bank Group, and UBS—are exploring the issuance of stablecoins pegged to G7 currencies, while the PYUSD launched by PayPal in collaboration with Paxos combines a global payment network with a regulated issuer. These cases indicate that success depends on the scale of distribution: namely, the ability to access banks, payment processors, and enterprise platforms. More stablecoin issuers are expected to collaborate or integrate systems in the future to compete for meaningful market share. —Jianing Wu (Research Analyst at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 11: A mainstream bank/broker will accept tokenized stocks as collateral.

Tokenized stocks are still in a fringe area, primarily limited to DeFi experiments and private chain pilots led by large banks. However, core infrastructure providers in traditional finance are accelerating their migration to blockchain-based systems, and regulators are increasingly showing support. In the coming year, it is likely that a mainstream bank or broker will begin accepting on-chain tokenized stocks as deposits, treating them the same as traditional securities. — Thad Pinakiewicz (Vice President and Researcher at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 12: Bank card networks will connect to public blockchain channels.

At least one of the top three global card networks will handle over 10% of cross-border settlement volume through public chain stablecoins by 2026, even though the vast majority of end users will not directly interact with crypto interfaces. Issuers and acquirers will continue to display balances and debts in traditional formats, but in the background, a considerable portion of net settlements between regional entities will be conducted through tokenized dollars to shorten cut-off times, lower pre-funding requirements, and reduce correspondent bank risks. This development will position stablecoins as a core financial infrastructure of existing payment networks. —Christopher Rosa (Research Analyst at Galaxy Research)

4. DeFi

Prediction 13: By the end of 2026, decentralized exchanges will account for over 25% of the total spot trading volume.

Despite the dominance of centralized exchanges (CEX) in new user liquidity and deposit channels, several structural changes are driving an increasing amount of spot trading activity on-chain. The two most significant advantages of decentralized exchanges are the no-KYC access pathway and a more cost-effective fee structure, both of which are becoming increasingly attractive to users and market makers seeking lower friction and higher composability. Currently, according to various data sources, decentralized exchanges account for about 15%-17% of spot trading volume. — Will Owens (Galaxy Research Analyst)

Prediction 14: Assets in the DAO treasury valued at over $500 million will be fully managed by the prediction market governance mechanism (Futarchy).

Based on our prediction from a year ago—that prediction market governance mechanisms would gain wider adoption as a governance model—we believe this mechanism has now demonstrated sufficient practical effectiveness for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) to begin using it as the sole decision-making system for capital allocation and strategic direction. Therefore, we expect that by the end of 2026, the size of DAO funds managed through prediction market governance mechanisms will exceed $500 million. Currently, approximately $47 million of DAO treasury funds are fully managed by this mechanism. We believe that growth will mainly come from newly established prediction market governance DAOs, but the expansion of the size of existing such DAO treasuries will also play a role. —Zack Pokorny (Research Specialist at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 15: The total outstanding loans based on cryptocurrency (calculated at the end of the quarter snapshot) will exceed $90 billion.

Relying on the growth momentum of 2025, the total amount of outstanding loans for cryptocurrency staking in the DeFi and CeFi sectors will continue to expand in 2026. As institutional players increasingly rely on DeFi protocols for borrowing activities, on-chain dominance (i.e., the share of loans originating from decentralized platforms) will continue to rise. — Zack Pokorny (Galaxy Research Research Specialist)

Forecast 16: The volatility of stablecoin interest rates will remain moderate, and the borrowing cost through DeFi applications will not exceed 10%.

As institutional participation in the on-chain lending market increases, we expect interest rate fluctuations to significantly decline due to deeper liquidity and increased capital stickiness (lower turnover). At the same time, arbitrage operations between on-chain and off-chain interest rates are becoming more convenient, while the threshold for accessing DeFi is increasing. With off-chain interest rates expected to trend downward by 2026, even in a bull market environment, on-chain lending rates should remain low—off-chain interest rates will constitute a key bottom support. The core logic is: (1) Institutional capital brings stability and sustainability to the DeFi market; (2) A downward off-chain interest rate environment will anchor on-chain rates, keeping them below the high levels typically seen during expansion periods. — Zack Pokorny (Research Associate at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 17: By the end of 2026, the total market value of privacy coins will exceed $100 billion.

Privacy coins gained significant market attention in the fourth quarter of 2025. As investors leave more funds on-chain, on-chain privacy issues have become a focal point. Among the top three privacy coins, Zcash saw an increase of about 800% that quarter, Railgun rose by about 204%, and Monero achieved a more moderate increase of 53%. Early Bitcoin developers, including the anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, explored solutions to make transactions more private or even completely shielded, but practical zero-knowledge technologies were not yet mature or widespread at that time. With more funds remaining on-chain, users (especially institutions) began to question whether they truly want to make their entire crypto asset balances fully public. Whether complete shielding designs or mixing schemes ultimately prevail, we expect the total market capitalization of privacy coins to rise from the current estimate of $63 billion by CoinMarketCap to over $100 billion. —Christopher Rosa (Research Analyst at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 18: Polymarket's weekly trading volume will continue to exceed $1.5 billion in 2026.

Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing categories in the cryptocurrency space, with Polymarket's weekly nominal trading volume nearing $1 billion. We expect that as new layers of capital efficiency deepen liquidity and AI-driven order flows increase trading frequency, this figure will continue to surpass $1.5 billion by 2026. Polymarket's continuously optimized distribution channels will also accelerate the influx of funds. - Will Owens (Galaxy Research Analyst)

5. Traditional Finance

Prediction 19: The United States will launch over 50 spot altcoin ETFs, as well as another 50 crypto asset ETFs (excluding spot single-asset products).

Following the approval of the general listing standards by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), we expect the pace of spot altcoin ETF listings to accelerate in 2026. In 2025, we have already seen more than 15 spot ETFs based on Solana, XRP, Hedera, Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Chainlink coming to market. We anticipate that the remaining major assets we have identified will also follow suit and submit their spot ETF applications. In addition to single-asset products, we also expect multi-asset crypto ETFs and leveraged crypto ETFs to be launched. With over 100 applications currently in the queue, a steady stream of new products is expected to emerge in 2026. — Jianing Wu (Research Analyst at Galaxy Research)

Forecast 20: The net inflow of funds into US spot crypto ETFs will exceed $50 billion.

By 2025, a net inflow of $23 billion has been achieved, and we expect this figure to accelerate in 2026 as institutional adoption deepens. As major integrated brokerages lift restrictions on investment advisors recommending such products, and large platforms that were previously hesitant (such as Vanguard) begin to include crypto funds, the inflow from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs alone should exceed the levels of 2025 as they enter more investor portfolios. Additionally, the launch of numerous new crypto ETFs, especially spot altcoin products, will unleash pent-up demand and drive incremental capital inflows, particularly in the early stages of distribution. — Jianing Wu (Galaxy Research Analyst)

Prediction 21: A mainstream asset allocation platform will incorporate Bitcoin into its standard model portfolio.

After three of the four major integrated brokerage firms (Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America) lifted restrictions on investment advisors recommending Bitcoin to clients and recognized an allocation ratio of 1%-4%, the next step is to include Bitcoin products in their recommended list and enter the formal research coverage, which will significantly enhance their clients' awareness of Bitcoin. The final step is to enter model portfolios, which typically require a higher fund assets under management (AUM) and ongoing liquidity, but we expect Bitcoin funds to cross these thresholds and enter model portfolios with a strategic weight of 1%-2%. — Jianing Wu (Research Associate at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 22: More than 15 cryptocurrency companies will conduct initial public offerings (IPOs) or upgrade listings in the United States.

In 2025, 10 crypto-related companies (including Galaxy) have successfully completed IPOs or uplistings in the United States. Since 2018, over 290 crypto and blockchain companies have completed private funding rounds of over $50 million, and we believe a significant portion of these companies are now in a position to seek listing in the United States in hopes of gaining access to the U.S. capital markets, especially in the context of a more relaxed regulatory environment. Among the most likely candidates, we anticipate that CoinShares (if completed by the end of 2025), BitGo (application submitted), Chainalysis, and FalconX will advance their IPO or uplisting processes in 2026. — Jianing Wu (Research Associate, Galaxy Research)

Prediction 23: Five or more Digital Asset Treasury companies (DATs) will be forced to sell assets, be acquired, or shut down completely.

In the second quarter of 2025, we witnessed a surge in the establishment of DATs. Starting in October, the multiple of their market price to net asset value began to compress. As of the writing of this article, the average trading price-to-net asset ratio of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana DATs has fallen below 1. After a wave of companies across various industries transformed into DATs to take advantage of favorable market financing conditions, the next phase will differentiate between DATs that possess sustainable competitiveness and those lacking a clear strategy or asset management capability. To succeed in 2026, DATs will need a sound capital structure, innovative liquidity management and revenue generation methods, as well as close collaboration with relevant protocols (if such relationships have not yet been established). Scale advantages (such as Strategy companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin) or jurisdiction positioning (such as Japan's Metaplanet) may offer additional advantages. However, many DATs that rushed into the market during the initial surge lack substantive strategic planning. These DATs will struggle to maintain their price-to-net asset ratios and may thus be forced to liquidate assets, be acquired by larger players, or in the worst-case scenario, shut down completely. – Jianing Wu (Research Associate at Galaxy Research)

6. Policy

Prediction 24: Some Democrats will make “de-banking” a topic - and may see cryptocurrency as a solution.

The likelihood of this prediction materializing is low, but please consider the following context: In late November, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) urged financial institutions to “remain vigilant in monitoring, identifying, and reporting suspicious activities related to cross-border fund transfers involving illegal immigrants.” While FinCEN's alert highlights risks such as human trafficking and drug smuggling, it also points out that the responsibility of money services businesses (MSBs) to submit suspicious activity reports (SARs) “includes cross-border fund transfers stemming from illegal employment.” This may involve remittances from undocumented plumbers, farmworkers, or waitstaff—those immigrant groups whose hiring violates federal laws yet garner sympathy from left-leaning voters. Prior to this alert, FinCEN had issued a Geographic Targeting Order (GTO) earlier in the year, requiring MSBs to automatically report cash transactions as low as $1,000 in designated border counties (far below the $10,000 threshold mandated by the Currency Transaction Reporting Act). These measures expand the scope of everyday financial behaviors that could trigger federal reporting, increasing the likelihood that immigrants and low-wage workers encounter fund freezes, refusals, or other forms of financial exclusion. As a result, this may resonate more with some immigrant-supporting Democrats regarding the “de-banking” issue (which has largely been a concern of the right in recent years) and make them more open to permissionless, censorship-resistant financial networks. Conversely, for the same reasons, populist, pro-bank, and law-and-order Republicans may begin to hold negative views towards cryptocurrencies—despite the strong support the industry received from the Trump administration and reformists within the Republican Party. Ongoing efforts by federal banking regulators to modernize Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering compliance requirements will only further provoke attention to the inherent contradictions between the two major policy goals of financial inclusion and crime reduction—different political factions will likely prioritize these contradictions differently. If this political realignment materializes, it will prove that blockchain does not possess a fixed political base. Its permissionless design means that acceptance or opposition to it is not based on ideology, but rather depends on how it affects the political priorities of different groups at different times. – Marc Hochstein (Vice President and Editor at Galaxy Research)

Prediction 25: A federal investigation will emerge regarding insider trading or manipulation of prediction markets.

As U.S. regulators give the green light to on-chain prediction markets, their trading volume and open interest have surged significantly. At the same time, multiple scandals have emerged involving insider trading and federal raids targeting syndicates manipulating games in major sports leagues. Since traders can participate anonymously rather than through KYC-verified betting platforms, insiders now face greater temptation to abuse privileged information or manipulate the market. Therefore, we are likely to see investigations triggered by unusual price fluctuations in on-chain prediction markets rather than traditional monitoring of regulated sports betting platforms. — Thad Pinakiewicz (Vice President and Researcher at Galaxy Research)

7, AI

Prediction 26: Payments using the x402 standard will account for 30% of daily transactions on the Base chain and 5% of non-voting transactions on the Solana chain by 2026, marking a broader use of on-chain channels in agent interactions.

The enhancement of intelligent agents' capabilities, the continued proliferation of stablecoins, and the improvement of developer tools will open the door for x402 and other intelligent agent payment standards to drive a larger share of on-chain activity. As AI agents increasingly trade autonomously across different services, standardized payment primitives will become a core component of the execution layer. Base and Solana have emerged as leading public chains in this vertical space—Base benefiting from Coinbase's role in creating and promoting the x402 standard, while Solana boasts a large developer community and user base. Furthermore, as agent-driven commercial activity increases, we expect emerging public chains focused on payments, such as Tempo and Arc, to experience rapid growth as well. —Lucas Tcheyan (Galaxy Research Analyst)