Most of the recent macro discussions have been about the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate. The more popular ones are Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, both named Kevin……

Based on current market predictions, Kevin Hassett has a slight edge. My personal (hopeful) judgment is that Kevin Hassett has a better chance to win because he is relatively more favorable to cryptocurrencies.

The two candidates repeatedly mentioned by Trump represent two completely different styles.

Kevin Hassett is more like an economic advisor close to the president, who views issues from the White House perspective, cares more about economic growth and real-world pressures, and has less obsession with high interest rates. His stance is that interest rates have already exerted enough pressure on the real economy, and if there is room, they should be loosened.

If he is elected, the market will naturally interpret it as monetary policy leaning more towards supporting growth, rather than obsessively targeting inflation. This kind of expectation is more friendly to risk assets, and the crypto market especially prefers this approach. Even if it doesn’t immediately take off in the short term, it will be in a relatively relaxed environment in the long run.

On the other hand, Kevin Warsh is closer to a traditional central banker. He has worked within the Federal Reserve system, emphasizes the independence and policy discipline of the central bank, and cares more about inflation control and institutional stability. He is less willing to be publicly directed by the president to coordinate interest rates and is unlikely to cooperate with AUP to stir things up.

If he ultimately takes office, the market will see it as stable, but probably not very exciting. Risk assets are unlikely to expect additional policy-driven boosts. For the crypto market, this isn’t bad news but also not a macro boost; it can only rely on its own cycle and narratives.