2025-12-15 12:11:26

#加密生态动态追踪 Bitcoin daily chart shows signs of weakness, with the price retracing to support levels for short-term stabilization. On the 4-hour chart, after four consecutive bearish candles probing the lows, a rebound occurred with a bullish close, but it was immediately met with resistance at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, leaving a prominent long upper shadow—this is a typical bearish trap signal. The pattern of consolidation with decreasing volume at higher levels indicates that upward momentum is being exhausted. The hourly chart shows a different picture, with bulls showing some signs of recovery, rebounding to recover nearly half of the previous decline. The long upper shadow suggests downward pressure is easing, and the price is approaching the middle of the range with potential for a breakout, presenting a short-term bullish bias.

However, on the larger timeframe, Bitcoin's downward trend framework remains unchanged. Considering market sentiment and trend inertia, it is recommended to focus tonight's trading strategy on a high-level short position.

Specific suggestions:
• Bitcoin: Short around 90,000, targeting 88,000
• Ethereum: Short around 3,160, targeting the 3,000 region

$BTC $ETH

BTC-0.63%

ETH-1.32%

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HodlKumamon

· 12-18 09:57

熊熊刚刚算了下，这波空头陷阱的概率统计显著性还是挺高的呢...小时图那个势能真的有点绷不住 --- Bollinger Bands middle line always like this, the data looks good but it just can't break through, very much like my account balance haha --- Daily chart weakness + high-level volume contraction, I've seen this combination 23 times, each time it was a golden period for dollar-cost averaging hugs everyone --- Shorting at 90000 sounds reassuring, but熊熊 still wants to ask... Are you really sure the big cycle framework hasn't changed? --- Every time I see the term "trend inertia," I think of the Kelly formula. Everyone, please control your positions well ٩(◕‿◕｡)۶

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FreeMinter

· 12-18 06:58

The term "short trap" sounds exciting, but I always feel this time is different. Are the 4-hour long shadows really that impressive? The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is just stuck there. Is this still called a breakout momentum? I don't believe this wave can break 90,000. The hourly chart is too deceptive, it turns around and crashes. I've seen it happen too many times. I've been watching the 88,000 line for a long time, just waiting to see if it dares to fall below. Shorting Ethereum at 3160 is a bit aggressive. I think we should wait a bit longer for the movements above. The larger cycle framework hasn't changed, but this frustrating market that keeps testing patience is really annoying. Why rush to short?

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GhostAddressMiner

· 12-15 12:38

Short trap? Haha, it's the old trick again. Look at those orders shorting at 90,000; nine out of ten are likely to be wiped out. The key is the fund flow behind it. I checked the on-chain data and found that a primary address just transferred out 2,000 BTC from a dormant wallet yesterday. This is something worth pondering.

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AllInDaddy

· 12-15 12:36

Short squeeze? Buddy, your analysis is a bit too optimistic. I think we need to wait a bit longer. --- It's both Bollinger Bands and long shadows; basically, the direction hasn't been confirmed yet. --- ? Dreaming, I don't think it will hold that level. --- High-level shorts sound pretty risky. The recent market is really unpredictable. --- I want to see Ethereum at 3000, but I'm afraid it will rebound again. --- Who dares to hold heavy positions in this kind of market? I'm choosing to wait and see. --- Feels like every day someone is calling for a short, but the coins are still rising.

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FlashLoanPhantom

· 12-15 12:34

It looks like the same old tune again, I've heard the high-level shorts too many times before --- Is the middle Bollinger Band resistance a short-selling trap? This logic is a bit questionable --- The hourly chart shows signs of a bullish trend, but the daily chart indicates a bearish trend, isn't that contradictory? --- I don't have the confidence to go short at 90000; I feel 88000 might not hold --- Every time they say the long-term cycle hasn't changed, but we're repeatedly trapped --- Is decreasing volume consolidation just consuming momentum? This theory needs to be updated --- We still have to look at on-chain data; chart analysis is a bit too subjective --- At 3160, still daring to short ETH? That's crazy --- Honestly, this rebound is just a trap to induce longs; the bearish framework is still in place --- If long shadows are so useful, technical analysis could make money easily

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CountdownToBroke

· 12-15 12:30

Short trap—this phrase always sounds a bit empty... Constantly being whipped between bulls and bears is really annoying. Another short at a high level. I bet this 88,000 won’t be reached at all; the rebound is the main course. Wait, is this really a drop this time or just another fluctuation? Please give a clear signal. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands doesn’t really mean much; looking at the bigger picture on the daily chart is more important. My short positions are about to get trapped and wiped out. I hope this analysis isn’t just another scam to cut the leeks again.

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