2025-12-14 05:20:50

Looking at the recent Bitcoin chart, it's really interesting. The current K-line pattern is strikingly similar to the top trend in 2021, which is worth a close look.

Compare the two charts side by side and you'll understand. Both show an initial sharp rise, followed by a period of sideways movement. In 2021, it was a surge followed by weakness; now BTC's performance is quite similar — multiple attempts to break through the upper trendline have failed, as if an invisible hand is pushing it down each time.

From the weekly chart perspective, a classic ascending wedge pattern has emerged. This pattern often signals a reversal, especially when the price struggles to go higher. Historically, ascending wedges frequently indicate a turning point from bullish to bearish. That's exactly what happened in 2021 — after a stagnant rally, a sharp decline followed. The current trend seems to be repeating this old script.

Momentum indicators are also issuing warnings. On the weekly chart, the energy behind this recent rally is clearly waning, lacking the support for new highs. Many refer to this phase as a "rally retracement." If a reversal really occurs, it could be the last chance to escape.

Of course, this is purely based on technical pattern analysis; the market's ultimate direction depends on capital flows and macroeconomic factors. But this similarity definitely warrants caution.

BTC1.05%

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LiquidationWatcher

· 12-17 04:27

Are we repeating the 2021 pattern again? I’m not very confident, but this wedge is indeed giving signals. All the bad news are piled up together, energy decay + inability to push higher, it feels like just one long bearish candle away. Last time those who believed in the technicals got trapped, this time I need to wait and see what the macro situation says. To be honest, those entering the market now are either brave warriors or bagholders, I can't see through it. Whether the wave can break new highs here depends on how the main players play it.

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GasFeeCrier

· 12-16 07:29

Here we go again, revisiting the old trick from 2021. To be honest, I'm a bit tired of it. Every time, they say the wedge pattern indicates a reversal, but what’s the result?

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WenMoon

· 12-14 05:50

The wedge top compression is indeed a bit scary, but every time people say a crash is coming, it still ends up just oscillating back and forth. The phrase "history repeats itself" has been heard too many times; let's just see what the capital flow indicates. Once again, it's said to be the last escape opportunity—I've heard that in the crypto world for five years, haha. It feels like this energy decay might be part of the accumulation phase, not necessarily a top signal. Does the same logic from 2021 still apply now? Market structures have changed.

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GateUser-7b078580

· 12-14 05:50

Data shows that energy is decaying, but historical patterns don't necessarily repeat... Let's wait a bit longer and observe the capital flow before making any decisions.

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TokenomicsTinfoilHat

· 12-14 05:50

It's the same set of "history repeating" rhetoric, but honestly, the pattern does look a bit strange. People said the same thing around this time last year, and you all know how that turned out. Energy decay is real, but I'm tired of hearing the phrase "last chance to escape." How does a wedge breakdown usually go? It still depends on the movements of major on-chain players; looking only at the chart is too one-sided. Whether it falls or not is another story; the key is not to be scared out. Historical similarity ≠ historical repetition. The macro environment this time is way different. That was truly outrageous in 2021; now it's just an adjustment at most, no need to be so nervous.

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LightningAllInHero

· 12-14 05:45

It's the same old trick again, wedges, reversals, history repeating... No matter how fancy it sounds, it all depends on what the main players are thinking. --- Honestly, I just enjoy analyzing these benchmarks, but those who really bet often end up losing haha. --- Rising wedges are indeed intimidating, but the macro situation this year is completely different from 2021. --- That last sentence "worth警惕" just means he's also uncertain, haha. --- Energy decay? From my perspective, recent capital inflows are still quite strong. --- Talking about exit opportunities again, just like the statements at the beginning of the year. --- 🤔 feels like every time they can dig out some pattern, but the key is when it will really drop. --- Wedges, if not broken, are just a false alarm. --- Instead of studying candlestick patterns, it's better to guess what the Fed's next move will be—that's the decisive factor. --- Does anyone really believe this? I think it all depends on ETF flows.

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AirdropSkeptic

· 12-14 05:36

In 2021, I also witnessed the crash firsthand. The current pattern is indeed a bit frightening. The wedge pattern has appeared, and the energy is still waning. To be honest, I'm a little anxious now. But on the other hand, will history repeat itself? It's hard to say. Will this time be different from 2021? I have a feeling there's some gambling involved. After such a long rally, it's finally time to relax. This is the real truth, right? Everyone is warning to be cautious, but should we instead turn around and go long? It's purely a matter of luck.

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