#数字资产生态回暖 $BTC

Looking at the 1-hour chart, recent questions about this wave of market movements prompted me to thoroughly explain both technical analysis and on-chain data.

From a technical perspective, the price is currently stuck at the 92159 level. The MA89 (91622) moving average line is firmly resisting downward pressure, without even a minor rebound. The middle band of BOLL is steady there, and MACD is even more interesting—DIFF at 392.9 has already pulled away from DEA at 307.8. Although the red histogram just started to appear, the volume is solidly accumulating. This combination of indicators is indeed a typical "bottom confirmation + indicator reversal" sign of an initiation pattern.

Now, looking at the on-chain data. Over the past year, 403,000 BTC have left exchanges. Currently, the BTC balance on exchanges is at its lowest level since 2017. In the last 72 hours, large holders quietly accumulated another 8,000 BTC. Think about it—under this situation, how can the price go lower? Logically, it doesn’t add up.

On the macro front? Some institutions have lowered their expectations, which sounds alarming but is actually just a story for retail investors. Although the Federal Reserve claims to be steady on rate cuts, in reality, they are still engaging in $40 billion monthly bond purchases. Liquidity is right there; no one can block it.

Considering these three dimensions, a short-term breakdown is only a matter of time. If the 1-hour chart can break above the BOLL upper band at 93,733, the next target would be around 94,500. Currently, the logic of shorting near 92,000 truly doesn’t hold up.