#美联储降息 12.12 Bitcoin Afternoon Trend Observation

Let's take a look at what's really going on with this recent market.

From a macro perspective, although the Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates, their attitude remains somewhat "dovishly hawkish," coupled with the Bank of Japan signaling a rate hike, which has shaken risk assets quite a bit. $BTC briefly surged past 94,000 following the Fed announcement but failed to hold, pulling back down, indicating that the 93,000-94,000 level is indeed a strong resistance.

Looking at the technicals, it's even clearer—the daily top pattern has been confirmed, and the 4-hour MACD has also formed a death cross. These signals together mainly suggest that the short-term bullish momentum has been exhausted. The 88,000-89,000 range is a zone where multiple technical indicators are converging positively, making it a core support level.

On the capital side, things are a bit uncomfortable—ETF inflow has noticeably slowed down, and the spot CVD has been consistently negative, with long liquidations exceeding 85%. This indicates that the pressure on long positions to cut losses hasn't fully eased, and another wave may follow.

**What about the short-term trend?**

Basically, it's fluctuating within the 90,000-93,000 range, leaning slightly bearish. Until a clear breakout signal appears, focus on retracements to resistance levels, making it hard for the market to form a one-sided trend.

**Trading strategy:**

For short positions, consider entering lightly around 92,500-93,000, with a stop-loss set at 93,500 (if it's truly broken through, that indicates a successful breakout, and you'll need to consider going long instead). The first target is 91,000 (yesterday's low). If that breaks, keep an eye on the 93,000 round number.

For longs, be patient—wait until the support at 90,000-89,000 stabilizes before trying small positions, with a stop-loss below 88,500 (a key support level that must hold). The target is 91,500-92,000. Take profits when in profit, avoid greed.

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