BTC/USDT Analysis: Cautious Rebound or Bull Trap?

Currently, the BTC chart (at the time of screenshot) and Glassnode analysts’ conclusions are strikingly synchronized, depicting a recovery lacking confidence.

📊 Technical Performance (according to the chart):
· Price: $90,256, below the key level of $92,000 and under the middle Bollinger Band (~$89,291). The price is hovering near the lower end of the recent range.
· Indicators:
· BOLL: Price is between the middle and lower bands (LB ~$84,614), showing selling pressure.
· Volume (Vol): Volume is declining (3.76K), and the volume moving averages (MA5, MA10) are trending down, indicating a lack of aggressive buying in the current price range.
· MACD: The histogram is in positive territory, but DIF and DEA remain deeply negative. This may suggest that downward momentum is slowing, but no reversal trend has formed yet.
· RSI: Ranging 42-45, showing a neutral-to-bearish bias, not yet extremely oversold.

🔍 Glassnode News Interpretation: “Early Signals but Lack of Confidence”
Glassnode accurately captures the market pulse:
1. Price vs. Sentiment: Rebounds $94k have occurred(, but quickly pull back to $90k, lacking conviction. Chart confirms: buyers can’t hold local highs.
2. Key signals—Spot CVD & Open Interest: Declines in these indicators are warning signs. This means spot whales )whales( are taking profits or not adding positions, and the futures market is deleveraging, with selling pressure remaining.
3. Options & ETFs: Rising demand for bearish hedges )put options( and ETF outflows show institutions are cautious. “Smart money” hasn’t bet on a strong rally yet.

🎯 Overall Conclusion:
The market is attempting a technical rebound after a pullback, but lacks fundamental confidence from whales and institutions.
· Near-term scenario: Likely to fluctuate widely within the Bollinger Band range )$84,600 - $93,900(. A true bullish signal would be a breakout with volume above the middle Bollinger Band )~$92,500-93,000(.
· Key focus: Watch spot CVD trends and BTC-ETF net inflows—continued recovery will be the first sign of confidence returning.

📌 Conclusion: The market shows signs of recovery but is still in the early rehabilitation stage )recovery#Bitcoin . Bulls have not gained full control. Patience is needed—wait for a strong confirmation at key levels. Long positions now are more aggressive, with stop-loss suggested below $89,000.
#BTC