#FedRateCutPrediction #BitcoinActivityPicksUp

New On-Chain Signals for Bitcoin Arrive Ahead of the FOMC Meeting and Expectations for a Rate Cut.

Bitcoin traders are facing new on-chain signals that older coins are re-entering the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. Analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates at its December meeting, and markets have already priced in a 25 basis point move.

However, deeper on-chain activity suggests uncertainty.

Sleeping Bitcoin Supply Returns as Policy Clarity Awaits

This week, more than 2,400 BTC, dormant for over a decade, was moved, activating a long-dormant supply worth more than $215 million. These coins typically remain untouched, and movement typically occurs before distribution, rather than accumulation.

This metric highlights that established holders are moving Bitcoin around and often choose to sell in strong markets.

This supply was absorbed by demand earlier in the year, but analysts are now observing that buyers are pulling back and experienced holders are dumping their coins on the market.

The return of stale supply during weak demand has historically weighed on price movements. ETF inflows remain soft, and net flows reflect diminishing institutional appetite compared to recent peaks. This suggests that rallies may struggle unless liquidity returns.

Institutional analysts remain confident about the broader cycle. Bitcoin may have broken its four-year halving cycle and entered an extended adoption phase.

Bitcoin is expected to reach $150,000 in 2026, with a potential peak near $200,000 in 2027.

However, market direction now depends on the Federal Reserve. If policymakers cut interest rates as expected, liquidity could increase and strengthen risk assets by early 2026.

A weaker dollar and lower capital costs could support ETF demand and absorb long-term holder selling.

A delay or a smaller discount could create volatility. Combined with a resurgent supply, Bitcoin could face deeper corrections before recovering.

Strong bids will be needed to reactivate the aging supply.

For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between shifting on-chain behavior and macroeconomic expectations. Investors will be closely monitoring the FOMC signal to determine whether the market is gaining resilience or if further declines are imminent.