Why does the market fluctuate with macroeconomic data? To put it simply, it's a matter of money – is it cheap? Is there enough of it?

First, let's look at the central bank: whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or inject liquidity ( QE or QT ) directly determines the cost of money. Inflation data must also be closely monitored; if CPI and PCE soar, the central bank will have to tighten. The transmission of PPI to the consumer end brings another layer of pressure.

Looking at the economic fundamentals again: Non-farm employment ( NFP ), GDP growth rate, PMI manufacturing index, retail data, these spell out whether the economy is hot or cold. If it's too hot, we need to tighten; if it's too cold, we can loosen.

Liquidity and sentiment are more nuanced: a strong US Dollar Index ( DXY ) typically suppresses risk assets, the inversion of 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields may suggest a recession, a surge in the VIX panic index indicates a risk-off mode is activated, and the widening credit spread indicates that the market is concerned about default risks.

The crypto space also has its own barometer: Is the net inflow or outflow of spot ETFs increasing daily? Is the supply of stablecoins expanding or shrinking? Is the regulation tightening or loosening? These directly affect on-chain funds.

The simple and straightforward rule: when inflation decreases, interest rate cut expectations rise, the dollar weakens, yields drop, ETFs attract capital, stablecoins are issued, and regulation is friendly - the bulls dominate. Conversely, the bears take over.

Don't forget three points in practice: The first 15 minutes after data release often set the direction, so pay close attention to how much the actual data deviates from market expectations; in the long term, you still need to follow the capital flow and cycles; finally, rational allocation is always more reliable than chasing hot trends.