The crypto world has recently staged a classic drama again—when ETH fell below 2800, the screen was filled with the wails of people cutting losses and leaving the market, and the panic index directly dropped below 25. To be honest, many people have really forgotten how this market operates.

My judgment is very simple: this round of correction is a typical institutional washout scheme, the next target for ETH is to break through 7200, and the current price around 3000? That's just a free opportunity.

On-chain data is the most honest. At the 2800 level, whale addresses holding over 10,000 coins have net increased their holdings by 420,000 coins in two weeks, pouring in a total of 1.27 billion USD. What about retail investors? They are in a state of panic selling, directly handing over their chips to institutions. This script seems familiar, right? This is the same pattern as after the FTX crash in 2022 and before the ETF approval in 2024.

There's another detail - the Ethereum reserves in the exchange have evaporated by 1.04 million coins in three months. Where did the coins go? Cold wallets and staking contracts. No one is in a hurry to sell, isn't this a bottom signal?

The historical pattern is clear: after a significant outflow of exchange reserves, the average price increase over the next 3 to 6 months is 65%. A conservative estimate suggests that this wave could reach 4500, with even larger catalysts to follow.

The technical aspect is also in alignment. The weekly RSI has fallen below 35 into the oversold zone, and in the past three occurrences of this situation, it has risen at least 40%. Market liquidity has just been reset, with both buy and sell orders shrinking to yearly lows—this calm before the turning point has been seen in early 2023 and 2024, after which a continuous rise for several weeks began.

The fundamentals go without saying, the Fusaka upgrade will be launched next week, and subsequently.