BTC Underwater Holdings Hit 2024 Levels—What It Means for Year-End Recovery

About one-third of Bitcoin’s supply is now trading at a loss, matching levels from September 2024. Sounds scary? Not necessarily.

The Numbers Behind the Dip

Onchain data reveals that short-term holders are particularly stressed—the 7-day SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) sits at 0.9904, showing coins are moving at losses. But here’s the thing: the Z-score is only −1.29, indicating moderate selling pressure, not capitulation.

Compare that to August 2024’s correction, when the same metric cratered to 0.9752 with a Z-score of −2.43. We’re nowhere near that level of panic.

Why This Could Be Bullish

Historically, when this many holders sit underwater, it marks seller exhaustion—not a breakdown. Once the weak hands finish selling, liquidity stress eases, and markets reset structurally. This is often where durable bottoms form.

What’s Next?

Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating near the $98,000–$103,000 demand zone. If BTC holds above $98,100, a gradual rebound into year-end looks realistic. A daily close below that level risks testing the yearly open near $93,500.

The big catalyst: if short position buildup in futures stabilizes, the squeeze could fuel recovery momentum. Recovery won’t be immediate, but the groundwork is being laid.

Bottom line: Discomfort is normal before rebounds. The data suggests patience, not panic.