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Has anyone noticed the changes in prediction market data? The probability of a rate cut in December skyrocketed from 22% to 62% overnight, all because of that huge miss in the non-farm payroll data.



But honestly, looking at these numbers, I’m a bit confused—rate cut expectations are so strong, so why is BTC still just moving sideways? Normally, this kind of macro tailwind should get the market pumped. Is everyone just waiting for confirmation? Or has the market already priced it in?

I really don’t get what’s going on with this market. Can anyone explain why the rate cut probability shot up but the coin price barely moved?
BTC-2.28%
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MEVHunterWangvip
· 4h ago
This round of rate cut expectations is really intense, but that's just how the crypto space is—the news and the market action never seem to align. When that big NFP shock hit, the market might have already priced it in. Now everyone is just waiting and watching for it to actually happen. A rate cut isn't necessarily bullish, bro. It depends on whether the Fed actually takes action or not.
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ContractCollectorvip
· 4h ago
Ah, this... the interest rate cut expectations are so strong, but the coin hasn't moved? It shows that everyone has already hedged in advance. The market has already made its money, and we just caught a whiff of the aroma, which is ridiculous. That non-farm number was indeed impressive, but it feels like large investors have already seen through it. Wait, are we still waiting for the Fed to really announce it for it to count? Right now, it's just a story. No, why did the prediction market soar and BTC just flounder? Where's the favourable information we were promised? I think it might still be gathering strength, waiting for the moment when the shoe really drops, hehe. It feels like it's in a rhythm of being priced in early; those who should make money have already laid their ambush.
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MissedAirdropAgainvip
· 4h ago
The probability of interest rate cuts has risen so sharply, yet the coin seems to have no reaction, which feels a bit strange. The market may have already priced it in, and now everyone is watching to see if the Fed will actually go through with it. Brothers aren’t hoarding chips, are they? Double top pattern warning, it’s always like this before the shoe drops. This non-farm payroll report has completely changed the narrative, but BTC is still playing dead, something’s not right. Suddenly feel that interest rate cuts may not necessarily be favourable information for the coin, perhaps the recession expectations are holding it down. Wait, could it be that big money is operating in reverse?
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screenshot_gainsvip
· 4h ago
The expectation of interest rate cuts is so strong yet it hasn't surged, indicating that the smart money has already made their moves, and we can only watch the excitement. This is how the crypto world works; all favourable information has been digested in anticipation, and by the time you see the news, the opportunity is long gone. It feels like this interest rate cut expectation is not that simple; there must be other variables, otherwise, it wouldn't be this calm.
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