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The "Black Swan" That No One Saw Coming
Have you ever wondered why economists did not predict the 2008 crisis or the crash of March 2020? The answer lies in one concept: the black swan.
What is it really?
Nassim Taleb popularized this term to describe events that:
The trap is here: our financial models are based on past data. If something has never happened before, the algorithms cannot “imagine” it. It's as if ancient Europeans thought all swans were white just because they had never seen a black one. Until someone discovered black swans in Australia.
Why is it important in crypto?
The cryptocurrency market is particularly vulnerable to these events. Stablecoins that seemed solid collapsed. Exchanges that appeared unbreakable went bankrupt in hours. Whales that no one saw accumulating liquidated positions that moved millions.
The key lesson
Taleb reminds us of something uncomfortable: we confuse familiarity with safety. The fact that the market has been calm in recent months does not mean it will continue to be so. Big and disruptive changes rarely come in a straight line.
In trading, in life, there are always black swans waiting. The question is: are you prepared?