#btc

#BitcoinCostAgenda

"If Bitcoin drops below the 1-year average of 102K, should we sell?"
My answer is quite clear: No.

Anyone who remembers the period of November 2021 knows how much relying solely on technical analysis limits us. Because price and volume are actually results.
The market takes action, we see this in the charts. Technical analysis is certainly valuable; but only half of it.

I think it is the investor behavior of the other half.
What behavioral finance says is simple: People are not rational.
Cost is therefore critical. VWAP is used in traditional.
On the chain side, the realized price opens up a much more meaningful window for us.

What makes the 102K level interesting is that it has never been breached in this cycle.
This does not mean that it cannot be reached.
But the critical point for me is the cost profile.

Currently, approximately 56% of the liquidity is in loss.
Money costing over 100K is serious: around 600 billion dollars.
I think we need to spend some time around the 90-100K range to see the real sales wave and watch what these groups are doing.
If we enter that region, an additional $100 billion will incur losses.
How will these investors behave?
Will they sell at a loss, or will they prefer to wait?
Who is selling, is it a realization of profit, or is there panic?

From what I can see, the situation on the table is not that negative right now.
Selling at a loss is very limited. ETF outflows are likewise.
Unlike in 2021, the Fed is not pumping interest rates, and QT is not accelerating. On the contrary, a climate of easing is being discussed.
Additionally, institutional buyers and ETF inflows were the main carriers in the last two major declines; they did not create panic.

I only see one area of risk here:
Stocks are excessively expensive.
Even if a normal correction comes there, crypto could shake first.
This can also be demoralizing.

I don't trust those who speak clearly about the future.
I think the important thing is to track a few key metrics and stay calm.
Graphics, costs, major buyer behaviors...
These few pieces tell a lot.

What I see right now:
The situation is not as bad as it seems.
We need to see stronger signals on the behavior side for a bearish trend.

I don't run away, I don't do things like that.
I will continue to watch.