#BitcoinPriceAnalysis

$BTC / USDT Market Outlook – Step-by-Step Deep Dive

🔹 1️⃣ Price Overview & Key Levels

Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently hovering near $107,864, maintaining a steady short-term downtrend after pulling back from its recent local high around $128,600.

The spotlight now turns to $105,312, the critical support zone where bulls and bears are fiercely clashing.

A decisive break and consolidation below $105,312 could open the floodgates toward the $100,000–$99,750 range a key psychological and technical area that could dictate Bitcoin’s next macro move.

📈Conversely, resistance stands tall between $114,270–$114,300. A breakout above this zone would mark the first technical sign of easing bearish pressure and potential momentum reversal.

🔹 2️⃣ Technical Indicators – Bearish Momentum Still Leads

MACD (12,26,9): Deeply negative, confirming persistent selling dominance. No bullish crossover or divergence yet, reinforcing the downtrend bias.

RSI (8,12): Currently oscillating between 32–39, indicating approaching oversold levels. However, traders must note that RSI can remain suppressed for longer periods in powerful downtrends.

KDJ (9,3,3):

K = 32.6

D = 41.5

J = 14.8
The J-line already deep in oversold territory hints at a short-term rebound possibility, though the broader direction still leans bearish.

🔹 3️⃣ Volume & Market Activity

Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume remains significantly elevated, showing strong participation in the recent correction.

This isn’t a quiet consolidation it’s an active sell phase, driven by both profit-taking and panic exits.

To confirm any potential rebound, we must see rising volume accompanying bullish candles otherwise, recovery attempts may lack conviction.

🔹 4️⃣ Base Case: Bearish Scenario (Most Probable)

At this stage, the dominant outlook remains bearish.

Expect a retest of $105,300 support.
If Bitcoin fails to hold this level with a clean daily close below it, the door opens to the $100,000–$99,750 zone the next area of potential accumulation.

For now, long positions remain risky without clear reversal confirmation.

🔹 5️⃣ Alternate Case: Bullish Rebound Scenario

Despite the bearish undertone, technical oversold conditions (RSI + KDJ) could fuel a short-term corrective bounce.

If bulls successfully defend $105,300 and we witness a volume-backed push upward, Bitcoin could rally toward $110,750–$114,270, offering tactical upside for short-term traders.

This wouldn’t yet confirm a full reversal but it would signal a temporary relief phase before the next major move.

Trading Strategies & Risk Guidance

For Bulls:
Patience is key. The safest entry lies after a confirmed bounce from $105,300 or a breakout above $114,270 with clear volume confirmation.

For Bears:
The trend still favors you. A decisive drop below $105,300 could present an ideal short setup, targeting $100,000 initially.

For All Traders:

Keep tight stop-losses in place.

Avoid emotional trading volatility in this zone can erase gains quickly.

Remember: Capital preservation > chasing every move.

Long-Term Perspective – The Big Picture

Zooming out to the weekly and monthly charts, Bitcoin’s macro structure remains strongly bullish.

Institutional accumulation, ETF inflows, and global macro conditions still favor long-term upside.

This phase could very well represent a healthy correction within a larger uptrend a potential accumulation window for strategic investors rather than the start of a full reversal.

Final Takeaway – The Battle Lines

All short-term metrics still tilt toward the bears, yet oversold signals are hinting at an approaching relief rebound.

Key Levels to Watch Closely:

Support: $105,300

Resistance: $114,270

Psychological Zone: $100,000

Stay alert, stay disciplined, and remember in volatile markets, control your risk before chasing