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There is an interesting phenomenon in the market, resembling an endless cycle. When a company's stock price rises, causing the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) to exceed 300 times, financing channels begin to be restricted. At this point, investors have to reduce leverage and start selling stocks, leading to a fall in stock prices. As stock prices fall, the PE ratio drops below 300 times, and financing opportunities arise again. Investors begin to increase leverage to buy in, pushing the stock price up.
This cycle repeats endlessly: the rise in stock prices leads to a high PE, limiting financing; the fall in stock prices reduces the PE, bringing back financing opportunities. This pattern seems never-ending, like a perpetual motion machine.
However, this phenomenon reflects the irrationality and speculation of the market. Over-reliance on the PE ratio as the sole basis for investment decisions ignores the company's fundamentals and long-term value. In fact, rational investment should comprehensively consider various factors such as the company's business model, competitive advantages, management capabilities, and industry prospects.
This cycle also exposes potential issues with market regulation. Perhaps more flexible financing policies are needed, and companies' financing capabilities should not be restricted solely based on PE multiples. At the same time, investors should also improve their financial literacy to avoid blindly following trends and excessive speculation.
Overall, this cyclical pattern reminds us that the stock market is not always rational. As investors, we need to stay clear-headed, not be misled by short-term market fluctuations, and focus on long-term value investing.