The prediction market shows that the U.S. government shutdown may last until the end of October.

On October 10, on a certain prediction platform and other prediction markets, traders increasingly believe that the U.S. government shutdown will last until the end of October or longer. According to the implied probability from trading prices on a certain prediction platform, the current likelihood of the U.S. government shutdown lasting more than 30 days is 37%, up from 15% when the shutdown began on October 1. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history occurred during Trump's first term, lasting 34 days from December 2018 to January 2019. On another prediction platform, the current likelihood of the government shutdown lasting more than 30 days is 39%, with traders on that platform averaging an expectation that this shutdown will last 24.7 days.