#十月加密市场预测 The heartbeat of the global Capital Market is once again in the hands of the Fed. The market is betting wildly: a rate cut in October is already a done deal, and another cut in December is also just around the corner. Where will this impending tsunami of Liquidity push the Crypto Assets?

1. The signal is clear: the wave of interest rate cuts is unstoppable.
Recently, global investors' attention has been focused on a set of data:
· The probability of a rate cut in October is as high as 94.6%!
· The probability of a rate cut in December has also reached 84.9%!
This is no longer a question of "whether it will drop," but rather a question of "when it will drop and by how much." The Fed's "U-turn" in policy signifies the official end of a two-year violent rate hike cycle, and a brand new era of easing is about to begin.
For the Crypto Assets market, this is by no means a distant macro narrative, but rather the sounding of a bull market horn that is about to be heard.
2. Why is interest rate reduction a "super benefit" for the crypto market?
To understand this, you need to grasp a core keyword: Liquidity.
1. 【Water flows downward, money moves upward】
The most direct impact of interest rate cuts is that they lower the yield on traditional "safe assets" such as banks and government bonds. When money in the bank no longer earns a profit, capital with a keen sense will flood out, searching for higher-yielding "low-lying areas."
The highly volatile and potentially limitless crypto assets market is undoubtedly the largest value gap. The influx of funds and the increase in buying pressure are undoubtedly the most direct fuel for driving up prices.
2. 【Dollar Weakens, Bitcoin Strengthens】
Interest rates are the anchor for the pricing of currency. A rate cut by the U.S. typically leads to a depreciation of the dollar. Since its inception, Bitcoin has carried the natural gene of "countering the depreciation of fiat currency."
When the marginal credit of the US dollar weakens, more and more individuals and institutions will regard Bitcoin as an important value storage tool (digital gold). In this context, the overall value foundation of Crypto Assets will become more solid.
3. [Risk appetite returns, "panic" turns into "greed"]
In the past two years, interest rate hikes have hung over global risk assets like a sword of Damocles, with market sentiment primarily focused on "risk aversion." The arrival of interest rate cuts is a clear policy signal: the tightening has ended, and it’s time to "take risks!"
Crypto Assets, as one of the asset classes with the strongest global risk appetite, will be the first to benefit from the shift in market sentiment. You will find that institutional funds and large retail investors that once left will return.
3. History does not simply repeat itself, but always presses on the same rhyme.
Let's review history:
In 2019, the Fed initiated "preemptive rate cuts," and Bitcoin surged 95% that year.
In 2020, after the pandemic, the interest rate dropped to zero + unlimited money printing, directly giving rise to an epic bull market that surged from 10,000 to 69,000.
Historical experience tells us: once the Fed's "tap" is turned on, the parched land of Crypto Assets always rejuvenates first.
Fourth, however, this time is really different!
Compared to any previous interest rate cut cycle, we are currently in a more favorable structural environment:
The "Siphon Effect" of Spot Bitcoin ETF: This is the first time in history that a financial weapon like "spot ETF" has entered a rate-cutting cycle. It acts like a huge funnel for funds, allowing traditional Wall Street money to flow effortlessly into Bitcoin. The liquidity released by rate cuts will be efficiently funneled into the market, its power far exceeding that of the past.
The halving cycle coincides with the interest rate cut cycle, forming a "Davis Double Hit": In April this year, Bitcoin just completed its fourth halving. Historically, halving itself brings supply shocks, sparking bull markets. Now, the "supply halving" and "monetary easing" two epic benefits are resonating, and the chemical reaction produced is worth looking forward to by all investors.
5. Think calmly: Risk alerts in opportunities
Of course, the market is not one hundred percent certain, and we need to maintain a clear mind:
· Beware of "buy the expectation, sell the fact": the benefits of interest rate cuts may have already been partially digested by the market. When the actual interest rate cut takes place, one must guard against fluctuations caused by short-term funds locking in profits.
· Pay attention to the economic fundamentals: If the interest rate cut is due to a sharp deterioration in the economy (hard landing), the market's panic in the short term may overwhelm the benefits of the rate cut.
The direction of the tide has changed. The Fed's interest rate cut will open up a macro-level "ceiling" for the crypto market. Although the road may have bumps, the tide driven by liquidity has already taken shape.
For every market participant, what needs to be done now is not to be anxious about short-term fluctuations, but to see clearly the position of the cycle from a broader perspective, prepare well, and welcome this new chapter driven by the shift in monetary policy.
The wind has arrived, are you ready?