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As the two parties in the U.S. Congress approach the midnight deadline.

Unable to reach an agreement on the temporary funding bill, the U.S. federal government officially pulled down the "curtain" on a government shutdown starting October 1. This marks the first shutdown of the U.S. government in nearly seven years, and upon the news breaking, global financial markets instantly entered a state of high alert.
However, unexpectedly, the market did not experience a panic sell-off. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has remained resiliently around the $114,000 mark after a brief fluctuation, showing relative stability. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is hovering at historical highs, while U.S. stock index futures are under pressure.
Beneath the surface calm of the market, there are turbulent undercurrents. What direct and indirect impacts will the shutdown triggered by the political deadlock in Washington bring to the cryptocurrency market? How will this seemingly distant political game affect the wallets of every cryptocurrency investor?
The trigger for this government shutdown is the sharp opposition between the Democratic and Republican parties regarding the federal budget issue. The core of the problem lies in the controversy over enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The Democrats insist on including hundreds of billions of dollars in healthcare subsidies in the appropriations bill, arguing that this is crucial for ensuring healthcare for tens of millions of Americans; while the Republicans advocate for passing a "clean" appropriations bill without any conditions, separating the healthcare issue.
As neither side could secure the necessary 60 votes in the Senate, two competing temporary bills both failed to pass, resulting in the depletion of federal funds and forcing the government to shut down non-essential departments. President Trump even threatened to take this opportunity to initiate "Reductions in Force (RIFs)" to permanently cut government redundancies, further inflaming this political standoff.
Direct impact
For the cryptocurrency industry, the most direct impact of a government shutdown is the "freezing" of the regulatory process.
With the government shutdown, most employees of key regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be forced to take leave. This means that all ongoing rule-making work in the cryptocurrency industry, including the highly anticipated "Project Crypto," will come to a standstill. Although the public can still submit comments, there will be no one internally to review them.
The most significant impact is from the various cryptocurrency spot ETFs that the market has been eagerly awaiting. Several fund management companies, such as Canary Capital, have a key regulatory deadline for their Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF in early October. Now, with the SEC approval team being forced to take leave, the approval process for these ETFs is almost certain to be delayed.
This is not just a delay in time, but it may also undermine market confidence. The prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Solana (SOL) and Litecoin are largely supported by expectations of institutional capital inflows, and ETFs are the key channel to attract this capital. The delay in approvals undoubtedly casts a shadow over the future performance of these assets.
At the congressional level, important legislative work such as the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act), which aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, will also be delayed. The Senate Banking Committee has postponed the originally scheduled bill debate hearing, making the timeline for the entire industry to gain regulatory certainty even more distant.
indirect influence
In addition to the direct impact on industry regulation, a government shutdown can also indirectly bring about significant uncertainty for the crypto market through the macroeconomic level.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has made it clear that all economic data releases will be paused during the government shutdown. This means that the non-farm payroll (NFP) report scheduled for release this Friday and the consumer price index (CPI) report set for mid-next month may both face difficulties in being published.
These data are the core basis for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) formulation of monetary policy (such as raising or lowering interest rates). Without these key indicators, the Fed will be like "driving blind," and its future interest rate decisions will face greater difficulties. Analysts warn that this "data blind spot" will amplify market volatility across all asset classes and could erode investor confidence, bringing significant downside risks.
Although a short-term shutdown may be seen by the market as "temporary noise," a prolonged political deadlock could severely undermine global investors' confidence in the U.S. economy and dollar-denominated assets. Deep political polarization, rising fiscal deficits, along with a fragile global economy, have made the current market exceptionally sensitive to any external shocks.
Potential Storm
In the face of government shutdowns, Bitcoin's historical performance has not been uniform, and its reactions are closely related to the market cycle at the time. October 2013 (end of a bull market): During a 16-day shutdown, the price of Bitcoin rose from $132 to $151, an increase of 14%. December 2018 to January 2019 (during a bear market): During the longest shutdown in history lasting 35 days, the price of Bitcoin fell from $3802 to $3575, a decrease of 6%.
CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno analyzes that in 2013, Bitcoin was in a strong growth phase of a bull market, while in 2018, the demand shrank during a bear market. He believes that the current market environment, with an increase in Bitcoin demand in the fourth quarter, is more similar to the situation in 2013.
In summary, the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the cryptocurrency market is multi-layered and profound. While Bitcoin prices have shown resilience in the short term, three major risks lurk beneath this calm: Regulatory Delay Risk: The stagnation of ETF approvals and industry legislation hinders the inflow of institutional funds and the compliance process of the industry. Macroeconomic Uncertainty Risk: The lack of economic data makes the Federal Reserve's policy path ambiguous, exacerbating market volatility expectations. Market Confidence Risk: A prolonged political stalemate could undermine investor confidence, leading funds to flow into safer havens.
Next, the duration of the shutdown will be a key variable in determining its ultimate impact. If both parties can quickly reach a compromise, the market may be able to weather this "political noise"; however, if the standoff extends, its negative impact on the economy and financial markets will be amplified, making it difficult for the crypto market to remain unscathed. For all investors, now is the time to stay vigilant and closely monitor developments in Washington. #RWA赛道，你押谁