#巨鲸动向# What stage has the market entered? This is one of the most concerning questions for current Crypto Assets investors.

Many investors are panicking after seeing the top divergence phenomenon in Bitcoin's weekly chart, believing that the bull market may have come to an end. However, this is actually a typical characteristic of the later stages of a bull market. Although the upward momentum has slowed down, the overall trend has not concluded.

The essence of a bearish divergence reflects the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, and this phenomenon may occur multiple times, even lasting for months to a year. During this process, the price of Bitcoin may continue to reach new highs, but the pace of the increase will noticeably slow down.

From the perspective of capital flow, the main driving force behind the current bull market comes from the incremental capital from institutions brought by ETFs, with these institutional funds primarily flowing into head assets such as $BTC and $ETH. This is fundamentally different from the bull markets of 2017 and 2021: the past bull markets were mainly driven by retail funds pushing various small coins up, while now it is institution-led, with funds highly concentrated in head assets.

Small coins that lack strong financial support are unlikely to sustain long-term growth, even if there are explosive market movements in the short term. Therefore, the current market resembles a "structural market", making it unlikely to see a prosperous scenario where all coins rise together.

Regarding the pullback depth and stabilization time, historical data indicates that the large pullback amplitude in Bitcoin bull markets is usually around 15%, and this pattern is relatively stable. Based on the current price level, even in the event of a more severe decline, the market is likely to find support around $105,000, forming a consolidation bottoming pattern rather than a direct collapse.

In terms of time, such pullbacks usually last for more than half a month. It is expected that this wave of oscillation adjustment may last until October, when market sentiment will gradually recover. During this period, short-term trading faces the risk of being repeatedly shaken, so it is wiser to remain patient and wait for the best entry point. In the later stage of a bull market, what is tested is not the spirit of adventure, but the calm judgment.

From the perspective of risk-reward ratio, $ETH currently has a high cost-performance ratio, mainly because: unlike the weekly top divergence of $BTC and the overall market (TOTAL3), the trend of $ETH is healthier and has not yet shown obvious technical damage signals.

In addition, the $ETH ecosystem-related sectors are also worth paying attention to, especially L2 solutions and Ethereum staking infrastructure. The capital effect brought by ETFs will not only drive up the price of $ETH itself but will also spread to related ecosystems. Although there will not be a comprehensive boom in small coins, structural opportunities still exist in specific areas.

In the current market environment, maintaining a patient investment attitude is far more important than blindly chasing highs.