The latest interest rate dot plot released by the Federal Reserve indicates that there is still a possibility of two rate cuts this year, a signal that has sparked widespread follow in the market. However, the specific magnitude of the rate cuts - whether 25 basis points or 50 basis points each time - has not yet been finalized.

Analysts point out that these two interest rate cuts are likely to be implemented in the fourth quarter of this year, specifically from October to December. However, the Federal Reserve's decisions are not set in stone and will be adjusted based on changes in economic data.

In the coming months, several key economic indicators will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions:

First, the core PCE price index will be released on September 26, with market expectations at 2.9%. This indicator is regarded as one of the inflation measures that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about.

Secondly, the non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate data on October 3 will provide important references for the health of the labor market. A strong job market may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while weak employment may accelerate the rate cut process.

In addition, the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on October 15 is also an indicator that cannot be ignored. The trend of the CPI directly reflects changes in inflationary pressure, which will influence the policy direction of the Federal Reserve.

Finally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 29 will be the focus of market attention. Although this meeting may not directly announce a rate cut, its assessment of the economic outlook and the statement of policy stance will provide important clues for the rate cut decision at the end of the year.

Overall, the Federal Reserve has taken a cautious stance on interest rate cuts. On one hand, they want to support economic growth through moderate rate cuts; on the other hand, they do not want to trigger inflationary pressures again due to rapid rate cuts. Economic data in the coming months will be a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions, and both investors and economists will closely follow these data changes.